Posts Tagged “food prices”

Retail Fruit and Vegetables Prices are Expected to Increase this Year

By |


Grocery store food prices are increasing this year, according to projections by the USDA.

The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts the food-at-home consumer price index (CPI) to rise 1 to 2 percent in 2019. Though that’s higher than the 0 to 1 percent uptick estimated for 2018, the increase expected for 2019 would mark the 4th straight year of deflating or lower-than-average inflating retail food prices, the agency noted in its Food Price Outlook 2018-19 report. The gain also would be less than the 20-year historical average of 2.1 percent.

Product categories expected to see price increases this year include dairy products (+3% to +4%), fresh vegetables (+2.5% to +3.5%), fresh fruit (+2% to +3%), cereals and bakery products (+2% to +3%), beef and veal (+1% to +2%), poultry (+1% to +2%), fish and seafood (+0.25% to +1.25%), and sugars and sweets (0% to +1%).

The expected rise in dairy prices for 2019 comes after a flat to 1% decrease estimated for 2018, according to the USDA.

Food prices are on their way up at the grocery store this year, according to projections by the USDA.

The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts the food-at-home consumer price index (CPI) to rise 1% to 2% in 2019. Though that’s higher than the 0% to 1% uptick estimated for 2018, the increase expected for 2019 would mark the fourth straight year of deflating or lower-than-average inflating retail food prices, the agency noted in its Food Price Outlook 2018-19 report. The gain also would be less than the 20-year historical average of 2.1%.

Product categories likely to see price increases this year include dairy products (+3% to +4%), fresh vegetables (+2.5% to +3.5%), fresh fruit (+2% to +3%), cereals and bakery products (+2% to +3%), beef and veal (+1% to +2%), poultry (+1% to +2%), fish and seafood (+0.25% to +1.25%), and sugars and sweets (0% to +1%).

The expected rise in dairy prices for 2019 comes after a flat to 1% decrease estimated for 2018, according to the USDA.

“Milk production is expected to rise at a modest rate of 1.1% in 2018. Dairy exports have strengthened but are expected to be limited for the rest of the year due to recent tariffs imposed by Mexico and China,” the report said. “Domestic demand for most dairy products has been relatively weak in the first half of the year but is expected to recover in the second half of 2018.”

Egg prices — among the most volatile retail food prices due to changes in seasonal demand — are projected to inch up 1% or less in 2019 following an estimated 10% to 11% jump in 2018. The USDA said recent price hikes at the farm and wholesale levels indicate that retail egg prices could continue to rise over the next few months. That contrasts with 2017, when more egg-laying birds and a higher number of eggs per hen eased prices, the agency explained.

Food categories that may experience retail price decreases include fats and oils (-3% to -2%), pork (-0.75% to +0.25%), other meats (-0.25% to +0.75%), processed fruits and vegetables (-1% to 0%), and nonalcoholic beverages (-0.25% to +0.75%).

“In addition to commodity prices, prices for other factors of production may influence retail food prices in 2019,” the USDA said in the report. “Electricity and diesel costs, as well as many other costs associated with food production, transport, and retail sales, are expected to rise, placing upward pressure on prices.”

Meanwhile, the USDA expects food-away-from-home prices — food purchased at restaurants — to grow at a consistent rate this year, rising 2% to 3%, the same increase estimated for 2018.

Read more »

The Bananas with an Edible Peel; Retail Food Inflation is Small

By |

AA3Bananas are always right at the top in surveys listing favorite fruits to eat. But now you can eat the banana peel – at least in Japan….Also, only a moderate increase in food prices is seen this year in the U.S.

Edibile Banana Peel

by Joe Dziemianowicz, NY Daily News

The brainchild of food scientists at a farm in Western Japan, the eat-it-all Mongee (pronounced mon-gay) banana derives from a frigid growing environment.

“Typically bananas only grow in tropical climates, but D&T Farms uses a method called ‘Freeze Thaw Awakening,’”

Mongee banana trees grow at -76 degrees Fahrenheit. Then, they’re thawed and replanted. As a result, fruit grows rapidly and are left with a lettuce-like skin.

The designer banana, reports rocketnews24.com, is “sweeter than regular bananas, with 24.8 grams of sugar, as opposed to the average 18.3 grams.

Retail Food Prices

Retail food prices will rise between 1 and 2 percent in 2018 after dropping 0.2 percent in 2017, predicts the USDA.

The USDA’s January 25 food price outlook report said retail food price inflation has been lower than average because of a stronger U.S. dollar which makes imported foods cheaper.

A high dollar also dampens U.S. exports, which increases domestic supply of food and put pressure on prices. Moderate increases in energy costs and shrinking retailer margins in 2017 may have held down food prices, according to the USDA.

For 2017, the report said retail prices for fresh fruits fell 1.1 percent from November to December but are up 2.1 percent compared with December 2016.

While banana prices rose in December, citrus prices dropped 6.1 percent and apple prices were 2.4 percent lower than in November. The USDA said fresh fruit prices rose 0.5 percent in 2017. For 2018, fresh fruit prices may rise 3 to 4 percent.

Fresh vegetable prices increased 1.3 percent from November to December,  and were 3.5 percent higher than in December 2016. For all of 2017, fresh vegetable prices decreased 0.1 percent. For 2018, fresh vegetable prices are expected to change between -0.5 to 0.5 percent.

 

Read more »

California Drought is Causing Produce Prices to Increase

By |

DSCN3893California’s ongoing drought continues to hit price tags in grocery stores across the country including fresh fruits and vegetable prices, which will go up an estimated 6 percent in the coming months, the federal government said recently.

“You’re probably going to see the biggest produce price increases on avocados, berries, broccoli, grapes, lettuce, melons, peppers, tomatoes and packaged salads,” said Timothy Richards, a chair  at the Morrison School of Agribusiness at Arizona State University.

In its monthly report on the food price outlook, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the price of fruit and vegetables will continue to rise.

The USDA’s Economic Research Service reported that the California drought has the potential to increase food price inflation above the historical average in coming years as farmers continue to battle for water in the summer months.

Although the department is sticking with its overall forecast that U.S. food prices will increase by up to 3.5% this year over last, it cautioned that the cost of meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables will jump.

California farmers produce about half of the nation’s fruits and vegetables, and most of its high-value crops such as broccoli, tomatoes and artichokes.

But the rising cost of water has forced farmers to idle about 500,000 acres of land and produce less, making certain foods more expensive.

Fresh produce has increased the most and that’s a direct result of the California drought,” said Annemarie Kuhns, an economist with the USDA.  Almost 70 percent of the nation’s lettuce is grown in California.

The department now expects 2014 U.S. fresh fruit prices to jump by up to 6 percent, up from its May projection of about 4 percent.  A devastating citrus disease in Florida also sent citrus prices up 22.5 percent this year.

Consumers will also see a bump in dairy prices due to increased demand.

Read more »

USDA Expecting Inflation to be Low for 2013

By |

IMG_5513The U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service’s August consumer price index (CPI) report forecast a low supermarket food inflation rate of 1.5% to 2.5% for 2013, and a slightly higher rate of 2.5% to 3.5% for 2014.

These rates are consistent with USDA’s July report forecast, when the agency dropped its 2013 inflation estimates.

“Most commodity prices other than those affected by the drought have seen moderate inflation or even deflation,” Richard Volpe, USDA research economist, told SN by email.

Fuel price inflation has been low, and the dollar has been strengthening, which has weakened imports for many foods. These are all factors that have contributed to our forecast revision.”

Overall food inflation that includes restaurant prices is expected to range between 1.5% to 2.5% for 2013, which is lower than the historical average of 2.8% for the past 20 years, according to USDA.

For example, the overall food inflation in 2012 was 2.6%, while the rate was 3.7% in 2011.

“In general, the impact of the 2012 drought on food prices has been smaller than expected,” Volpe said.

 “For most of this year and last, the PPI [Producer Price Index] for finished and intermediate foods has grown faster than the food at home CPI, suggesting that margins have shrunk and that retailers have been slow to pass on higher commodity costs to consumers,” said Volpe.

Even though the USDA expects inflation for the rest of 2013 to increase at a faster rate than earlier in 2013, this annual rate is not expected to climb higher than 2.5%, according to Volpe. The expected increase in month-over-month inflation is contributing to the 2014 forecast, as well as the USDA leaving room for poor weather.

Compared to July 2012, eggs and produce have had the highest rates of interest so far this year, with egg inflation up 6.8%, fresh fruits up 2.5% and fresh vegetables up 3.6%.

Read more »

Slight Decline Reported in Fruit, Vegetable Prices

By |

While overall food prices rose slightly in September, fresh produce prices actually declined.

According the Consumer Price Index issued by The Commerce Department, there was a .4 percent drop in fruit and vegetables prices in September, comapred to August.  This resules from a .9 percent drop in frest fruit prices.  September overall consumer food prices were .1 percent higher, following a .2 percent increase in August.

The USA average retail price in September for fresh oranges was $1.30 per pound,  down from $1.44 per pound in September 2011. The red delicious apple USA average retail price in September was $1.53 per pound, up from $1.51 per pound this time last year. The average retail banana price was 60 cents, down from 61 cents per pound at the same time a year ago.

Fresh vegetable prices increased .8 percent in September compared with August.  However the Commerce Department said the fresh vegetable index is still 4.9 percent below year-ago levels.

Fresh potato prices in September were down 1.9 percent from August and 13.6 percent below 2011 levels. Retail prices for lettuce were up 1.1 percent above August but 3.4 percent down from 2011,  the report read.

While fresh tomato prices in September were up 2.9 percent from the previous month, it was  4.9 percent lower than a year ago. levels. The average retail price for tomatoes in September was $1.38 per pound, down from $1.50 per pound the same time a year ago, according to the report.

Read more »