There seems to be very few examples of bumper, much less record setting produce crops around the country this spring and summer. That will probably translate into produce freight rates not being exceptional – at least for this time of year. Typically, the heaviest volume and highest rates hit sometime in May and continue through June and July.
For example, California avocados, lettuce, many other vegetables and stone fruit are not expected to set any shipping records. You’ll also see the results of this lower volume translating into significantly higher retail prices at your local supermarket.
Other shipping areas around the country expect small volumes of produce to be shipped, due to weather factors, ranging from Texas to Michigan and the Southestern U.S.
There have been produce industry estimates ranging from a half-million to 1 million acres of agricultural land likely to be affected by the current California drought, with between 10 and 20 percent of the supply of certain crops possibly lost. California grows and ships around 50 percent of the nation’s fresh fruits and vegetables.
One study estimates the following possible price increases due to the drought: avocados, up 17 to 35 cents to as much as $1.60 each; berries, up 21 to 43 cents to as much as $3.46 per clamshell; broccoli, up 20 to 40 cents to a possible $2.18 per pound;. grapes, a rise of 26 to 50 cents to a possible $2.93 per pound; lettuce, could rise 31 to 62 cents to as much as $2.44 per head; packaged salad, up 17 to 34 cents to a possible $3.03 per bag; peppers, up 18 to 35 cents to a possible $2.48 per pound; and tomatoes, likely to rise 22 to 45 cents to a possible $2.84 per pound.
“We predict the increased prices will change consumer purchasing behavior,” Sherry Frey, vice president of Nielsen Perishables Group, said in a release. Frey said that certain consumers — young consumers of avocados, for example — will be more heavily affected by the price increases.
All of these factor don’t even take into consideration mounting rules and regulations by state and federal governments on the trucking industry. The hours-of-service rules implemented last year alone will undoubtedly reduce the number round trips. There is still a push for electronic on board devices, and the feds want higher insurance requirements for truckers — and the list goes on and on.
So will there be any $10,000 gross freight rates on coast-to-coast produce hauls this year? Probably not, or at the best very few. But no one really knows for sure.