Here’s an update on California citrus shipments, Red River Valley potatoes, plus the government’s 2016 outlook for food prices.
About 84 million boxes of California navels, 8 percent more than last year, are expected to be harvested this season. The estimate remains unchanged from the preseason harvest. This is a pleasant surprise considering all of the fruit and vegetable shipments that have been disrupted this winter ranging from the California desert to Mexico and Florida.
California citrus – grossing about $4100 to Chicago.
Red River Valley Potato Shipments
North Dakota growers, dealers, and processors held 19.5 million hundredweight (cwt.) of potatoes in storage on December 1, or 72 percent of production. Stocks one year earlier were considerably lower at 16.9 million cwt., which represented 71 percent of the total crop.
Minnesota held 12.5 million cwt., or 68 percent of production, that compares to 10 million cwt. and 61 percent in 2014. Total stocks are defined as all potatoes on hand, regardless of use, including those that will be lost through future shrinkage and dumping.
Red River Valley potatoes – grossing about $1700 to Chicago.
2016 Inflation Outlook
Fruit and vegetable retail prices should rise at a faster rate in 2016 than the previous year.
The USDA’s latest Food Price Outlook predicts retail inflation for fresh fruits for 2016 at 2.5% to 3.5%, compared to estimated deflation of -1.25 to -2.25 percent in 2015. The USDA said part of the reason for the decline in fruit prices in 2015 was linked to the supply and price of imports.
Fresh vegetable retail prices are projected to increase by 2 to 3 percent in 2016. That compares with modest projected inflation of 0.75 to 1.75 percemt for retail fresh vegetables in 2015.
Overall retail food inflation for 2016 is projected to rise in a normal range of between 2 to 3 percent, up from estimates of 2015 inflation of 1.5 to 2.5 percent, according to the USDA. Inflation for food away from home is projected in a range between 2.5 to 3.5 in 2016, up from 2.2 to 3.2 inflation projected for 2015.