By Northwest Cherry Shippers
The first estimate from Northwest Cherries pegs the 2021 crop at 23.79 million cartons, up 20% from 19.83 million cartons in 2020 and up 2% from 2019. Harvest is expected to begin June 1.
Crop Size: The Northwest Cherry Growers’ Field Estimate team has compiled an initial (“Round 1”) projection for the 2021 Northwest crop. Annually this 22-person estimation team looks at their orchards as well as the surrounding area’s volume dynamics and compiles overviews for their area.
Each member submits the data specific to their active growing districts, and then that data is built into an estimation model which represents each of the Northwest’s cherry growing regions. The model is populated with historical data, growing degree day patterns, acreage shifts, market trends, processing tonnage and in-field assessments, and then uses the Field Team’s input to project a crop for the coming season. This year, the first round data from the model suggests a 2021 crop of 237,992 tons.
2021 NW Round 1 Crop Estimate: 23,792,000 boxes
However, as always it is important to note that this Round One estimate has the most potential for variance from the eventual and actual size of the crop. Spring was late this year, but progressing quickly. Tree “drops” are natural and taken into account in our subsequent estimates. But that’s not all we can tell from the trees, and the news is good.
Crop Points to Remember – 2021
Harvest will begin in the last few days of May in our earliest sites.
As more orchards & regions come online during the first two weeks of June, volume may accumulate more slowly due to weather-impacted orchards.
While volume may accumulate more slowly, as the end of June approaches we expect shipping volumes to exceed last year.
Supplies for late June and the 4th of July promotions look very promising.
July will be a strong month all the way through.
August will have opportunity for at least one ad this season with projected volume trickling out through the end of the month.
Crop Timing: Based on our accumulated Growing Degree Day data, it appears that AT THIS POINT we are on track for a start that should begin by June 1. In several of our earliest regions we are only a day or two behind last year, which saw harvest start on the 28th of May.