DAT’s 2024 Freight Rate Focus report notes pandemic-sparked disruptions of 2020 and 2021 stretched routing guides beyond their threshold and pushed truckload rates to record highs. The high rates attracted a record number of new carriers, with the number of for-hire interstate carriers nearly doubling.
While truck rates are expected to rise to some degree, the DAT report said it may not be until the middle of 2024.
“The truckload market cycle is bottoming out as carriers continue to exit the industry,” the report said. “However, without any significant change in truckload demand expected before the second quarter of 2024, the market may remain in its current state for quite some time – likely until at least midway through 2024.”
Other shocks to the global supply chain, including war, could change pricing quickly, the DAT report said.
DAT’s prediction is current market conditions will continue until late Q2 when the market should finally find equilibrium.
“The truckload market should revert with spot rates rising over contract rates sometime in the first half of the year, and demand will normalize as the supply chain disruptions that began during the pandemic work their way out of the system,” the report said.
Average U.S. refrigerated truck rates (per mile)
- Jan. 3 — $3.88.
- Feb. 7 — $3.72.
- March 7 — $3.48.
- April 4 — $3.43.
- May 2 — $3.37.
- June 6 — $3.58.
- July 4 — $3.59.
- Aug. 1 — $3.57.
- Sept. 5 — $3.69.
- Oct. 3 — $3.41.
- Nov. 7 — $3.33.
- Dec. 5 — $3.21.
(Source: USDA)
Freight costs for produce shippers declined during 2023, but the rate dip may be setting up a return to firmer pricing in 2024.
In January 2022 for a load of refrigerated produce out of California to the East Coast averaged $5.19 per mile, according to the USDA. By late July, the rate declined to $3.55.