Canadian apple production is predicted to increase 5% in the 2024-25 marketing year, driven by a larger Quebec crop and average Ontario crop, according to a new USDA report.
The apple crop in British Columbia is expected to be average with apple trees having weathered a January 2024 cold event better than pears and grapes, the report said.
While the British Columbia crop will be average by volume, there are sizing and quality issues.
“Additionally, one of the packers and owners of controlled atmosphere in the province, the BC Tree Fruits Cooperative announced an immediate closure in July,” the report said, adding that the closure left many growers without a packer for the upcoming harvest and with a loss of access to controlled atmosphere storage.
“Some growers may look to secure storage access in Washington state, a smaller Washington crop may help support access to these storage facilities,” the report said. “As a result of limited controlled atmosphere storage options at present, it is likely that there will be a large volume of apples selling through the end of 2024 as growers lack the capacity to put them in longer-term storage. This would in turn create a greater need for imports to satisfy [British Columbia] retailer and consumer demand from January 2025 onwards. A higher volume on the market through end of 2024 will also continue to negatively impact pricing.”
The report said Canadian pear production for 2024-25 is forecast to be down 9% compared with the previous season because of cold impacts to the crop in British Columbia. A larger Ontario crop will only partially offset losses in British Columbia, the report said.
Canadian imports of apples and pears are forecast to be down slightly in marketing year 2024-25, driven by shifting consumer preferences and a reduction in U.S. production, according to the report.
The USDA said fresh apple imports are forecast to drop a little over 2% because of the increase in Canadian apple production and a decline in the U.S. apple crop.
“Canada is forecast to maintain recent year’s export pace with a larger crop supporting a forecast of 8% growth in exports,” the USDA said. A smaller U.S. apple crop will also provide additional export opportunity for Canadian apples, the report said.
Production of table grapes is forecast to decline 16% due to adverse weather events impacting Ontario and British Columbia. The USDA predicts Canada will increase its imports of grapes by 2% in 2024-25.