By Mark Campbell, ProduceIQ
A record-setting heat wave across the West has toppled long-standing March temperature highs from Yuma to Palm Springs, and now that heat is advancing east, according to the article published by the Blue Book.
Forecasts show much of the Southeast running 15–30 degrees above average the week ending March 23.
That surge in temperatures is fast-tracking the close of the Yuma season, raising the stakes for a smooth handoff to California production. If West Coast growers aren’t ready to take the baton, markets could face a brief but impactful supply gap just as production begins a seasonal decline.
Tomato markets are “channeling” the spirit of March Madness. After all varieties posted notable declines last week, prices for round, plum, and grape tomatoes are climbing once again.
Extremely light supply from Florida and Mexico, paired with the +17 percent duty on Mexican tomatoes, is fueling renewed volatility. With supply constrained and demand steady, instability is expected to persist through April.
The same heat driving production shifts in the West is also tightening supply in other categories. Asparagus prices jumped +22 percent week-over-week as heat-stressed supply struggles to keep pace with Easter demand. Week #12 prices are now well above average, ranking as the second-highest in the past decade. Relief remains limited: ongoing heat in the West and delayed shipments from Peru are expected to keep upward pressure on the market through the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, warmer temperatures are beginning to reshape demand patterns. Warmer weather is stirring demand for watermelon, pushing prices up +9 percent from the previous week. Week #12 pricing is now at the second-highest level in the past 10 years. With Florida production still weeks away, the market is leaning heavily on dwindling Mexican supply. Prices are likely to climb further over the next 3–5 weeks until domestic harvests arrive to meet seasonal demand.
Even tropical items are feeling the squeeze as supply struggles to keep pace with warm-weather demand. Pineapple prices continue to hold firm at elevated levels in week #12. Tight import supply, driven by adverse weather, is trailing just behind strong Easter demand. With supply expected to remain limited, prices are forecast to edge higher in the coming weeks.
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