Posts Tagged “California almond shipments”
The 2024 California almond production forecast is 2.80 billion meat pounds, down 7% from May’s subjective forecast and 13% higher than last year’s crop of 2.47 billion meat pounds, the USDA reports.
The forecast is based on 1.38 million bearing acres. Production for the Nonpareil variety is forecast at 1.10 billion meat pounds, 17% above last year’s deliveries of 941 million meat pounds.
The Nonpareil variety represents 39% of California’s total almond production.
The 2024 almond crop experienced mostly favorable weather during the bloom period, which began the second week in February and finished by the middle of March. Bee activity hours were reported to be significantly higher than last year.
Wet and warm weather in April increased pest and disease pressure, but dry conditions and mild temperatures in May helped the developing crop. Multiple heat waves across the state during June and July required growers to increase irrigation in their orchards.
The almond harvest is expected to be on schedule.
The average nut set per tree is 4,072, an increase of 3% compared to 2023. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,137 is 3% higher than last year. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.61 grams, down 4% from the 2023 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.64 grams, down 3% from the 2023 average weight. A total of 98.9% of all nuts sized were sound.
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said its latest almond forecast is a 2.8 billion meat pounds, which is 13% higher than last year’s crop of 2.47 billion meat pounds but down 7% from its May forecast.
The USDA said the forecast is based on reporting from 1.38 million bearing acres.
The forecast for nonpareil, which is 39% of the state’s total almond production, is 1.1 billion meat pounds; that is 17% higher than last year’s 941 million meat pounds.
USDA said these figures are due to favorable weather conditions during bloom, which began the second week in February and finished by the middle of March. USDA also reports bee hours to be higher than last year.
The 2024 California Almond Forecast published May 10 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates the crop harvested in 2024 will come in at 3 billion pounds, 21% higher than last year’s 2.47 billion pounds.
The forecasted yield is 2,170 pounds per acre, up 380 pounds from the 2023 harvest.
“This larger crop estimate is what the industry expected after a productive bloom this spring, but it is also a testament to the hard work done by almond farmers throughout California during difficult times,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California. “Demand for California almonds around the globe continues to grow and our almond farmers constantly deliver on producing high-quality California almonds to meet that demand.”
The report said, “The 2024 almond crop experienced fluctuating, but mostly favorable weather for the first half of the growing season. The bloom began the second week in February for the early varieties. There were a handful of storms that brought rain, wind, and hail to some areas, but overall mild temperatures and excellent weather from the end of February into early March helped boost pollination. Bee hours were reported to be significantly higher than last year … There was minimal to no threat of frost damage and water allocation is not an issue for the second year in a row.
This Subjective Forecast is the first of two production reports from USDA-NASS for the coming crop year. It is an estimate based on opinions from a survey conducted from April 19 to May 5 of 500 randomly selected California almond growers. The sample of growers, which changes every year, is spread across regions and different-sized operations, and they had the option to report their data by mail, online, or phone.
On July 10, USDA-NASS will release its second production estimate, the 2024 California Almond Objective Report, which will be based on actual almond counts in approximately 1,000 orchards using a more statistically rigorous methodology to determine yield. If the 3.0 billion pounds holds, it would be the second largest crop on record.
This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2024 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California has decreased about 600 acres from the previous year to 1.373 million acres.
Despite rainy winter and a cool spring, the California Almond Objective Measurement Report published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) estimates that the 2023 crop will come in at 2.6 billion pounds, 1% percent above last year’s 2.57 billion pounds.
This new estimate is up 4% from USDA-NASS’s subjective forecast back in May and comes after one of the wettest winters on record, limited bee flights because of rain and wind, and a cool spring.
USDA’s Forecasted yield is 1,880 pounds per acre, down 20 pounds from 2022 and the lowest since 2009.
The slight increase comes partly because of larger nut size and despite difficult conditions, USDA-NASS’s report says, “Record level rainfall and unprecedented stormy conditions hindered bee pollination activity in orchards across the state. Cooler than normal temperatures continued through early summer and delayed the maturity of the crop.”
“Almond farmers have faced a series of challenges in recent years, and this wet, cool winter and spring created different obstacles after three years of drought. Yet the forecast for a larger crop shows the resiliency of California almond orchards,” said Richard Waycott, president and CEO of the Almond Board of California (ABC).
“Almond farmers have worked hard while dealing with higher production and financing costs and a bloom with highly compromised bee flight hours. They are very thankful, however, for the abundant rain and snow which vastly improved the water situation, at least for now, and for shipping logistics that continue to improve. The perseverance of California’s almond farmers is admirable as is their commitment to meet future growth in global demand with high-quality California almonds.”
The forecast for the average nut set per tree is 3,953, 3% down from 2022. The Nonpareil average nut set of 4,004 is 1% more than last year.
The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.67 grams, up 14% from the 2022 average weight. The Nonpareil average kernel weight was 1.69 grams, up 9% from last year.
The survey was conducted from May 26 to July 3 and 1,824 trees were sampled in 912 orchards, 32 more orchards than in 2022. USDA-NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast, Objective Report and Acreage Report to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.
For the first time in a quarter of a century, California’s almond acreage has decreased instead of grown, according to Land IQ, an agricultural and environmental research and consulting firm. In an August crop report, total almond tree acreage was estimated at 1.64 million acres, down from 1.66 million acres in August 2021, according to a news release.
California’s tight water restrictions and lack of rain continues to be a major problem. A recent report by Land IQ, commissioned by the Almond Board of California, confirms that even the resourceful almond industry has felt the sting of drought conditions.
Almond crop production typically begins in August, with final shipments at the end of July the following year.
Echoing Land IQ’s findings, the USDA California almond forecast predicts 2022 production will come it at 2.80 billion pounds, 4% lower than 2.92 billion pounds in 2021.
Citing a dry winter and warmer temperatures in early 2022, the USDA forecast outlines how these factors contributed to “a shorter bloom period than in recent years” that was further affected by a late February freeze, causing frost damage in many orchards. While late-blooming almond varieties reported to have fared better than early blooming varieties, according to the USDA, “the 2022 crop is not expected to be as large as the past two years.”
Land IQ also found that an estimated 30,000 acres were identified as stressed or abandoned. These acres were included in the total acreage because, according to Land IQ, they may still recover.
“Land IQ’s report may indicate a possible trend towards lower California almond acreage in the year ahead,” Richard Waycott, ABC president and CEO, said in a news release. “This acreage estimate was based on data collected through Aug. 31, so it does not reflect any additional removals that may have occurred as the harvest and post-harvest seasons progressed this fall. Those data will be incorporated in the next acreage estimate to be published in April 2023.”
California almond production in the 2022-2023 season is expected to drop 11%, according to the USDA.
California’s driest three-year period on record has spurred unprecedented cuts to usual water supplies, driving up costs. That’s forcing some producers to tear out orchards in favor of other crops, or simply stop watering trees.
California supplies 80% of the world’s almonds and volume is shrinking for the first time in over 25 years. This is the result of the state’s historic drought which is leading farmers to abandon orchards or forgo new plantings altogether.
The state had an estimated 1.64 million acres at the end of August, down slightly from a year earlier, according to the Almond Board of California. Further, the number of new trees planted from 2020 but are not yet bearing almonds fell 17%.
California is a huge nut-growing area –and Almonds are the earliest ones to shipped.
“This year’s crop is estimated to be 3 Billion pounds..”, according to Jake Samuel, CEO of Sunrise Fresh Dried Fruit, “This increase is attributed to a good bloom, favorable weather in February and a large number of younger orchards coming into full production –around 100,000 additional acres!”
Sunrise Fresh Dried Fruit, besides being a provider of premium dried fruits is also a grower of both California Almonds and Walnuts. In addition, Sunrise Fresh has developed snacks that use both dried cherries, almonds, walnuts and even pecans.
“ This year, we will harvest approximately 1 million lbs. of Almonds, followed immediately by 2 million pounds of Walnuts – and this year, it looks as though we will have some overlap –which is a challenge for the Crews.
Harvest 2020 has not been completely issue-free, as smoke from wildfires have lowered the ambient temperature, causing slower ripening. “This will not affect the Almond quality…” continued Samuel, “…but the lower orchard temperature will slow the drying process and lengthen the overall time of harvest.”
California almond shipments for the 2020 crop are predicted to increase 18 percent this year, totalling 3 billion pounds.
The USDA reports last year’s shipments was 2.55 billion pounds.
The Almond Board of California notes Domestic and export shipments are up so far this year and global demand stronger than ever. The average nut set per tree is 5,645, up 21 percent from the 2019 almond crop.
The Nonpareil average nut set is 5,621, up 27 percent from last year’s set. The average kernel weight for all varieties sampled was 1.51 grams, down 2 percent from the 2019 average weight.
Almond production and shipments original throughout California’s Central San Joaquin Valley.