Posts Tagged “consumer spending”
During the past four years inflation has battered consumers, and a Rabobank analysis says U.S. consumers have finally hit the wall.
In a report on the cost of a Fourth of July barbecue, Rabobank analysts said consumers are trading down and eating out less often in response to long-running inflation.
“The consumer is waving the white flag on food inflation,” Tom Bailey, senior consumer foods analyst at Rabobank, said in a news release. “With an added 2% in price hikes in 2024 coupled with the cost disparity between dining out and cooking at home at its widest margin in history, we’re seeing heightened fatigue and frugality.”
The 2024 Rabobank BBQ Index, which measures the cost of staple ingredients for a 10-person barbecue, shows that it will cost $99 to host a cookout on the Fourth of July this year, up from $97 last year and $73 in 2018. Cookout ingredients are 32% higher food costs in 2024 compared with 2019, according to Rabobank.
The index showed that the average U.S. consumer has to work an hour to earn enough money for a six-pack of beer and a burger in 2024, up from 51 minutes in 2019, and they’ll have to work nine hours to pay for a barbecue this year, up 32% since 2019.
Produce prices for the BBQ Index are mostly tame compared with a year ago, Rabobank economists said. California’s drought in 2023 sent lettuce prices to more than $100 a carton, well above the average range of $15 to $20 per carton. Rabobank analysts said lettuce prices have come down significantly in 2024.
“We expect leafy greens to have steady supplies, good quality and decent prices,” Rabobank economists said in the release.
Potatoes, also hit hard by drought last year, have rebounded with greater supply based on expanded acreage harvested in the fall of 2023. Potato prices are about half of year-ago levels, the index showed.
On the other side of the ledger, Rabobank analysts said tomato prices have moved higher in 2024 as dry weather in Mexico has curtailed production and overall availability.
Rabobank analysts said a reported 68% of people polled by Vericast say they are switching from restaurants — where the tab is up 4.4% annually — to grocery stores, which have seen only a 1.1% price.
Consumers are pulling back all purchases because of tight budgets, Rabobank officials said. Retail sales were weaker than expected in May as higher borrowing rates and inflation discouraged purchase decisions, Rabobank economists said.
“Retail sales will likely remain soft throughout 2024,” Bailey said.
Wages have not kept up with inflation. Credit card debt, on average, sits at $10,479 per household in the U.S., up from $8,763 in 2021. Forty-one percent of Americans polled by WalletHub say they have more credit card debt now than they did 12 months ago, the release said.
Government aid, such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program emergency payments, the child tax credit, increased unemployment benefits and a suspension of student loan payments have ended, the release said. People under the age of 35 have been hit the hardest; credit card delinquencies in this demographic are at their highest level since 2011, according to the Federal Reserve.
“Fiscal fitness is now more of a focus,” Bailey said. “Saddled with mounting credit card debt, waning savings, and lower real income, consumers are spending less.”
While consumer spending on fruit and vegetables increased in 2017, it still trailed the percentage hike in overall spending on food.
The data is found in the 2017 Consumer Expenditures report published by The U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Overall total consumer spending increased 4.8 percent in 2017, following an increase of 2.4 percent in 2016. The report said the average annual expenditures by consumer units increased from $57,311 in 2016 to $60,060 in 2017.
Spending on fruits and vegetables totaled $837 in 2017, an increase of 6.9 percent compared with 2016, which compares a 7.3 percent increase in spending on all food.
Food-at-home spending rose 7.3 percent to $4,363 while food-away-from-home spending rose 6.7 percent to $3,365, according to the CE report. The percentage of total expenditures on food was reported at 13 percent in 2017, the same share as the previous three years.
The mean average spending across all consumer units was $274 for fresh vegetables and $314 for fresh fruit. The share of fresh produce purchases compared to all consumer expenditures was 0.5 percent for fresh vegetables and 0.5 percent for fresh fruit.
By the age of consumers, for example, top spending consumers for fresh fruit were in the 45 to 54 age bracket, with mean expenditures of $378 or 2017. That compares with just $176 spend on fresh fruit for consumers aged under 25.
For fresh vegetables, the 35 to 44-year-old age group was top rated, with 2017 mean expenditures of $329 compared with $138 for consumers under age 25.
Not surprisingly, the report said that top spenders on fresh produce were top earners. Consumers making more than $200,000 per year spent an average of $529 on fresh vegetables, compared with $140 for those making less than $15,000. But consider the consumer making less than $15,000 was spending 0.6 percent of income on fresh vegetables, compared with 0.3 percent for the consumer making more than $200,000.
There is more micro-analysis where that came from. The report shows spreadsheets for spending by income before taxes by quintile, decile, and range; age of the reference person; size of the consumer unit; composition of the consumer unit; number of earners; housing tenure (homeowner or renter) and type of area (urban or rural); region of residence; occupation; highest education level of any consumer unit member; race; Hispanic or Latino origin; and generation of reference person.