Posts Tagged “food prices”
What will it cost to put out that appetizing spread for the Big Game this year? It will cost about 8% to 14% more than 2021, depending on whom you draft to be on your team for one of the biggest food events of the year.
You will need to work on your blocking and tackling for this year’s big game. Your offensive line of carbohydrates and vegetables will need to keep your rampaging snackers from sacking your quarterback of proteins. While the cost of chips and dips, vegetables and other appetizers are up approximately 2% to 5%, they represent your best value to feed those hungry feasters who are all fired up by the clever ads or big plays.
The action on the gridiron will be tame compared with the action on the grill, where prices are up 12% to 18%. Who’s to blame? Just like an armchair quarterback, everyone has an opinion (sometimes powered by the beer or wine, up 4% to 5%). To say the least, it is as confusing as a broken play with three separate penalty flags on the field and instant video challenges.
Let’s work our way through your shopping list:
Chips/dips
Potato chips: In periods of increased supply disruptions and higher food inflation, the humble potato chip offers a stout defense. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) January pronouncement of inflation(2) shows a subpar increase of 1% versus this time last year. We can thank American farmers’ and food manufacturers’ strong preparation and deft execution for keeping a lid on the price pressure.
Chips/dips
Potato chips: In periods of increased supply disruptions and higher food inflation, the humble potato chip offers a stout defense. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) January pronouncement of inflation(2) shows a subpar increase of 1% versus this time last year. We can thank American farmers’ and food manufacturers’ strong preparation and deft execution for keeping a lid on the price pressure.
Guacamole/avocados: There is great news in the ever-popular avocado and guacamole category, with food inflation showing about a 1% increase from a year ago3. Most avocados and guacamole come from our Mexican and South American friends. They continue to expand production and execute, keeping the supply ample. Muchas gracias, amigos!
Salsa: Salsa is an all-important complement to the guacamole. It will be more expensive than the chips and the guacamole in terms of price inflation. Salsa is up 6% from last year. Once again, it’s due to labor, packaging, and shipping, rather a lack of chilis and tomatoes.
Veggies
Make sure you stack your offensive line with vegetable all-stars. We’re playing “Moneyball” here for the win. Carrots, celery, and tomatoes (depending on your format and brand) are roughly the same price as last year. Between checking the BLS and Nielsen numbers, we can see that there are lots of options that are flat (or slightly down). As a smart general manager, you should review your options to buy in bulk and prepare them yourself. This requires some prep time before the Big Game, but hopefully your diners will appreciate your Moneyball savvy.
Wings and things
The proteins are where the trouble has shown up in terms of price increases. The grill represents your spending point of pain. There are a lot of moving pieces to the price increases. Is it the “infamous Big Meat”? Or, higher feed costs for all the animals due to corn and soybean spiking close to 100% over that last couple of years? Maybe, COVID’s impact on processing and supply-chain are to blame? Of course, the answer is all those things and more. Your real question looking at the draft board as it stands is, who should you pick with your next draft choice?
Chicken wings: There is nothing but pain in this category. The USDA says prepared chicken wings are up 14% to 26% (bone-in and boneless respectively). The IQF (individually quick frozen) chickens are up 26%. It would seem the IQF is the bigger loser, but that misses the point that they are still $3.57 per pound versus $7.24 (the average) for the prepared wings. Is that the sound of an air fryer I hear? A great call by the GM for drafting a diamond in the rough.
Pork chops: I am moving pork chops up on my draft picks. The BLS is reporting that they are 7% more expensive than last year, but given protein inflation, that makes them a buy. They might not have the cachet of the next item, but steak is packing a world of pain on the pricing front.
Steak: Steak has always been an all-star, but with a 23% price increase from a year ago, is it having a prima donna moment? The BLS shows $11.06 per pound for USDA choice sirloin (versus $8.98 a year ago). The cattle and beef industry is working both structural and temporary issues at this point. The Biden administration has announced initiatives and money to help and regulate the industry. Those could help, but they won’t help this year.
Cocktail wieners: Here’s one that seems popular by different regions, and they are a crockpot powerhouse. The Nielsen data shows them 7% higher than last year. That moves them higher on my draft board. Maybe a couple of extra pounds in the crockpot will help you manage fourth quarter defense against those going back for seconds (or even thirds).
Hamburger: The BLS says ground hamburger is up 17% from a year ago. It’s nation-wide price shows $4.60 a pound. This isn’t nearly as bad as the steak, but it still represents a real commitment. One of the differences for steak versus hamburger is the sourcing and the demand. The U.S. brings in meat to grind into hamburger from Australia and Brazil (to mention the big two), and the U.S. exports high-end cuts to Asia. These market dynamics led to less price pressure for hamburger versus the steaks.
Shrimp on the Barbie
I guess there are two ways to look at featuring shrimp at this year’s big game. It is up sharply from last year’s $3.60 per pound (at the wholesale import level, according to Urner Barry) to close to $4.40 per pound (same index). That’s a 22% increase. However, last year’s price represented a multi-year low due to COVID reducing restaurant demand. Back in January 2018, the index showed the same shrimp being priced at approximately $4.40 a pound. That is about the same price range as today. Now, unless you are buying by the metric ton, you will pay much more at retail prices, but they should move in a relative strong relationship to what we see in the wholesale pricing.
In the cooler
Soft drinks: Food inflation continues to rear its ugly head in the soft drink world. The labor, packaging, and transportation costs are crimping the industry’s ability to match last year’s prices. Here again your general manager skills will need to be applied. According to the BLS, the 2-liter bottles jumped the most by increasing 12%. In contrast, the 12 pack of cans is up 6%. Both represent big jumps compared to general food inflation. Even so, that 2-liter bottle represents a better value if you can get your attendees to agree on the type and flavor.
Beer: The beer industry continues to struggle with modest demand strength and higher input costs. The BLS reports that beer prices are up 4% from a year ago. No doubt, the brewers are facing higher labor, packaging and shipping costs just like the soft drink segment, but the overcapacity in the industry has muted the price increase. Not a bargain like the carbohydrates and vegetables, but it helps the budget.
Wine: The wine industry mirrors the beer industry with its woes. The BLS reports wine prices up 3%, just like beer. Our California wineries and vineyards continue to struggle with much higher labor, water, and transportation costs. However, global supply capacity is making it difficult to pass those cost increases along. This will definitely work in our favor as we prepare for the Big Game.
Tips for keeping costs low
Go for the guac. With avocado prices holding nearly steady since last year, this is a good bang for your buck.
Pick pork. Although prices are up 7%, it’s a bargain for your meat this year. Things to chew on: pork tacos, pork meatballs, and pork sliders.
Bring on the beer. Prices are somewhat stable. Brews will be a good buy for your buck.
As for the Big Game itself, it’s the Cinncinati Bengals vs. the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in L.A.
Grocery store food prices are increasing this year, according to projections by the USDA.
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts the food-at-home consumer price index (CPI) to rise 1 to 2 percent in 2019. Though that’s higher than the 0 to 1 percent uptick estimated for 2018, the increase expected for 2019 would mark the 4th straight year of deflating or lower-than-average inflating retail food prices, the agency noted in its Food Price Outlook 2018-19 report. The gain also would be less than the 20-year historical average of 2.1 percent.
Product categories expected to see price increases this year include dairy products (+3% to +4%), fresh vegetables (+2.5% to +3.5%), fresh fruit (+2% to +3%), cereals and bakery products (+2% to +3%), beef and veal (+1% to +2%), poultry (+1% to +2%), fish and seafood (+0.25% to +1.25%), and sugars and sweets (0% to +1%).
The expected rise in dairy prices for 2019 comes after a flat to 1% decrease estimated for 2018, according to the USDA.
Food prices are on their way up at the grocery store this year, according to projections by the USDA.
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts the food-at-home consumer price index (CPI) to rise 1% to 2% in 2019. Though that’s higher than the 0% to 1% uptick estimated for 2018, the increase expected for 2019 would mark the fourth straight year of deflating or lower-than-average inflating retail food prices, the agency noted in its Food Price Outlook 2018-19 report. The gain also would be less than the 20-year historical average of 2.1%.
Product categories likely to see price increases this year include dairy products (+3% to +4%), fresh vegetables (+2.5% to +3.5%), fresh fruit (+2% to +3%), cereals and bakery products (+2% to +3%), beef and veal (+1% to +2%), poultry (+1% to +2%), fish and seafood (+0.25% to +1.25%), and sugars and sweets (0% to +1%).
The expected rise in dairy prices for 2019 comes after a flat to 1% decrease estimated for 2018, according to the USDA.
“Milk production is expected to rise at a modest rate of 1.1% in 2018. Dairy exports have strengthened but are expected to be limited for the rest of the year due to recent tariffs imposed by Mexico and China,” the report said. “Domestic demand for most dairy products has been relatively weak in the first half of the year but is expected to recover in the second half of 2018.”
Egg prices — among the most volatile retail food prices due to changes in seasonal demand — are projected to inch up 1% or less in 2019 following an estimated 10% to 11% jump in 2018. The USDA said recent price hikes at the farm and wholesale levels indicate that retail egg prices could continue to rise over the next few months. That contrasts with 2017, when more egg-laying birds and a higher number of eggs per hen eased prices, the agency explained.
Food categories that may experience retail price decreases include fats and oils (-3% to -2%), pork (-0.75% to +0.25%), other meats (-0.25% to +0.75%), processed fruits and vegetables (-1% to 0%), and nonalcoholic beverages (-0.25% to +0.75%).
“In addition to commodity prices, prices for other factors of production may influence retail food prices in 2019,” the USDA said in the report. “Electricity and diesel costs, as well as many other costs associated with food production, transport, and retail sales, are expected to rise, placing upward pressure on prices.”
Meanwhile, the USDA expects food-away-from-home prices — food purchased at restaurants — to grow at a consistent rate this year, rising 2% to 3%, the same increase estimated for 2018.
Bananas are always right at the top in surveys listing favorite fruits to eat. But now you can eat the banana peel – at least in Japan….Also, only a moderate increase in food prices is seen this year in the U.S.
Edibile Banana Peel
by Joe Dziemianowicz, NY Daily News
The brainchild of food scientists at a farm in Western Japan, the eat-it-all Mongee (pronounced mon-gay) banana derives from a frigid growing environment.
“Typically bananas only grow in tropical climates, but D&T Farms uses a method called ‘Freeze Thaw Awakening,’”
Mongee banana trees grow at -76 degrees Fahrenheit. Then, they’re thawed and replanted. As a result, fruit grows rapidly and are left with a lettuce-like skin.
The designer banana, reports rocketnews24.com, is “sweeter than regular bananas, with 24.8 grams of sugar, as opposed to the average 18.3 grams.
Retail Food Prices
Retail food prices will rise between 1 and 2 percent in 2018 after dropping 0.2 percent in 2017, predicts the USDA.
The USDA’s January 25 food price outlook report said retail food price inflation has been lower than average because of a stronger U.S. dollar which makes imported foods cheaper.
A high dollar also dampens U.S. exports, which increases domestic supply of food and put pressure on prices. Moderate increases in energy costs and shrinking retailer margins in 2017 may have held down food prices, according to the USDA.
For 2017, the report said retail prices for fresh fruits fell 1.1 percent from November to December but are up 2.1 percent compared with December 2016.
While banana prices rose in December, citrus prices dropped 6.1 percent and apple prices were 2.4 percent lower than in November. The USDA said fresh fruit prices rose 0.5 percent in 2017. For 2018, fresh fruit prices may rise 3 to 4 percent.
Fresh vegetable prices increased 1.3 percent from November to December, and were 3.5 percent higher than in December 2016. For all of 2017, fresh vegetable prices decreased 0.1 percent. For 2018, fresh vegetable prices are expected to change between -0.5 to 0.5 percent.
California’s ongoing drought continues to hit price tags in grocery stores across the country including fresh fruits and vegetable prices, which will go up an estimated 6 percent in the coming months, the federal government said recently.
“You’re probably going to see the biggest produce price increases on avocados, berries, broccoli, grapes, lettuce, melons, peppers, tomatoes and packaged salads,” said Timothy Richards, a chair at the Morrison School of Agribusiness at Arizona State University.
In its monthly report on the food price outlook, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the price of fruit and vegetables will continue to rise.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service reported that the California drought has the potential to increase food price inflation above the historical average in coming years as farmers continue to battle for water in the summer months.
Although the department is sticking with its overall forecast that U.S. food prices will increase by up to 3.5% this year over last, it cautioned that the cost of meat, dairy, fruit and vegetables will jump.
California farmers produce about half of the nation’s fruits and vegetables, and most of its high-value crops such as broccoli, tomatoes and artichokes.
But the rising cost of water has forced farmers to idle about 500,000 acres of land and produce less, making certain foods more expensive.
Fresh produce has increased the most and that’s a direct result of the California drought,” said Annemarie Kuhns, an economist with the USDA. Almost 70 percent of the nation’s lettuce is grown in California.
The department now expects 2014 U.S. fresh fruit prices to jump by up to 6 percent, up from its May projection of about 4 percent. A devastating citrus disease in Florida also sent citrus prices up 22.5 percent this year.
Consumers will also see a bump in dairy prices due to increased demand.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service’s August consumer price index (CPI) report forecast a low supermarket food inflation rate of 1.5% to 2.5% for 2013, and a slightly higher rate of 2.5% to 3.5% for 2014.
These rates are consistent with USDA’s July report forecast, when the agency dropped its 2013 inflation estimates.
“Most commodity prices other than those affected by the drought have seen moderate inflation or even deflation,” Richard Volpe, USDA research economist, told SN by email.
Fuel price inflation has been low, and the dollar has been strengthening, which has weakened imports for many foods. These are all factors that have contributed to our forecast revision.”
Overall food inflation that includes restaurant prices is expected to range between 1.5% to 2.5% for 2013, which is lower than the historical average of 2.8% for the past 20 years, according to USDA.
For example, the overall food inflation in 2012 was 2.6%, while the rate was 3.7% in 2011.
“In general, the impact of the 2012 drought on food prices has been smaller than expected,” Volpe said.
“For most of this year and last, the PPI [Producer Price Index] for finished and intermediate foods has grown faster than the food at home CPI, suggesting that margins have shrunk and that retailers have been slow to pass on higher commodity costs to consumers,” said Volpe.
Even though the USDA expects inflation for the rest of 2013 to increase at a faster rate than earlier in 2013, this annual rate is not expected to climb higher than 2.5%, according to Volpe. The expected increase in month-over-month inflation is contributing to the 2014 forecast, as well as the USDA leaving room for poor weather.
Compared to July 2012, eggs and produce have had the highest rates of interest so far this year, with egg inflation up 6.8%, fresh fruits up 2.5% and fresh vegetables up 3.6%.
While overall food prices rose slightly in September, fresh produce prices actually declined.
According the Consumer Price Index issued by The Commerce Department, there was a .4 percent drop in fruit and vegetables prices in September, comapred to August. This resules from a .9 percent drop in frest fruit prices. September overall consumer food prices were .1 percent higher, following a .2 percent increase in August.
The USA average retail price in September for fresh oranges was $1.30 per pound, down from $1.44 per pound in September 2011. The red delicious apple USA average retail price in September was $1.53 per pound, up from $1.51 per pound this time last year. The average retail banana price was 60 cents, down from 61 cents per pound at the same time a year ago.
Fresh vegetable prices increased .8 percent in September compared with August. However the Commerce Department said the fresh vegetable index is still 4.9 percent below year-ago levels.
Fresh potato prices in September were down 1.9 percent from August and 13.6 percent below 2011 levels. Retail prices for lettuce were up 1.1 percent above August but 3.4 percent down from 2011, the report read.
While fresh tomato prices in September were up 2.9 percent from the previous month, it was 4.9 percent lower than a year ago. levels. The average retail price for tomatoes in September was $1.38 per pound, down from $1.50 per pound the same time a year ago, according to the report.