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Produce Prices Lower This Year, But Increases Seen for 2013

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Fresh fruit and vegetable retail prices in 2012 were generally lower, according to a recently released government report.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service reports lower fruit and vegetable prices resulting in overall retail prices for food being kept in line through October this year.

From January through October , average food-at-home prices have been flat because deflation in the fresh fruit and vegetable arena  and lower prices for milk and pork, the USDA ERS said in a food price outlook report issued in late November. By contrast, beef, veal, poultry, fat and oil prices have been higher.

The inflation forecast for both all food and food-at-home prices in 2012 is 2.5 to 3.5 percent.  Lower prices were particularly pronounced for vegetables in 2012, according to the USDA ERS.

The fresh vegetable consumer price index increased 0.6 percent, however it has dropped about every month in 2012.   Compared with 2011 year ago, fresh vegetable prices are down 3.2 percent on average, due primarily by a 10.9 percent drop in potato prices, a 4.1 oercent decline in lettuce and a 1.7 percent slide in tomato prices. Other fresh vegetable prices were down 0.7 percent.

Warmer weather and favorable growing conditions in 2012 combined to increase yield and lower prices compared with year-ago levels.

An expected seasonal increase in prices during the second half of 2012 has been less than predicted, and because of that the USDA now expects fresh vegetable prices to fall 4 percent to 5 percent in 2012. The fresh fruit price index is up 2.1 percent from October 2011, and the USDA projected fresh fruit prices for 2012 are now projected to fall between 1 percent and 2 percent.

Compared with October 2011, the USDA said retail apple prices are up 6.4 percent, with banana prices 1.4 percent lower, citrus prices 0.1 percent higher and other fresh fruit commodities up 1.3 percent in retail price.

Prices increases overall of 3 to 4 percent for fresh produce is projected in 2013 by the USDA.  The agency sees an increase  of 3 to to 4 percent  for fresh fruit and 4 to 5 percent for fresh vegetables.

Overall food price inflation for 2013 is projected between 3 and 4 percent.  Prices for food served away from home are projected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2013, while prices for food served at home are expected to increase 3 to 4 percent.

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