As part of its 2025 Outlook Conference, the U.S. Apple Association announced its first official crop estimate for the 2025-26 season.
Using both USDA data as well as insights from state representatives, the association projects about 278.5 million bushels, which is up about 1.3% from the 2024-25 season estimate. These figures are slightly down from the USDA estimate of about 290.1 million bushels. This figure, though, is about 3.6% above the five-year average.
One thing Chris Gerlach, vice president of insights and analytics with the U.S. Apple Association, points out that this crop estimate will not necessarily reflect the true size of the 2025-26 harvest.
“That’s a capacity number that is not necessarily what’s going to be picked and packed,” he says.
State estimates
Leading the country in production is Washington, with a forecast record crop of about 180 million bushels, which is up 1.1% year-over-year.
Gerlach says he also coordinated to get additional context behind these figures and the state representatives he spoke with indicated a mild summer and ideal weather has set the crop up well. He says the insiders he talked to say gala and red delicious will be smaller than average but good color and quality while Honeycrisp, Cosmic Crisp and fuji will have a good medium to large profile.
“Discipline will be required to leave smaller fruit on the tree — money will be tight to pick everything,” he says.
New York, taking the No. 2 spot, will come in with about 30.5 million bushels, which is about a 0.7% decrease from last season.
Insiders tell Gerlach that a cold and wet spring and a hot and dry summer have impacted the crop this year. Gerlach reports insiders told him growers in the state struggled with chemical thinners this year, which may have impacted size. The state expects to have good volume with a light Honeycrisp season this year, light processing varieties such as Idared and Rome but a decent red delicious crop this year.
In the third spot, Michigan projects to be up about 10% with about 30 million bushels. A cold spring and thinning issues impacted the crop, but Gerlach says insiders told him the crop is shaping up well. Insiders indicate Honeycrisp and gala volume will be up this year in the state, but fuji will be down.
Fourth in production in the country, Pennsylvania production, forecast at 10.5 million bushels, will be up about 2% year-over-year.
Gerlach says state representatives indicate fruit is clean and sizing well. As far as varieties, Honeycrisp and fuji volumes will be down this year and gala volumes will be up. Insiders indicate variable volumes on red delicious and processing varieties.
“Effective thinning after the April freeze in Pennsylvania and a wet May can lead to a larger crop,” he says.
Virginia, in the fourth spot, forecasts to be down by 50% to 2.75 million bushels.
“A considerable frost freeze event in April was preceded by three days of warm weather, which maximizes that impact,” Gerlach says. “The natural thinning event will reduce volume but may help sizing.”
In terms of volume, insiders from Virginia tell Gerlach that gala, golden delicious and granny smith look to be in good supply, but York, red delicious and pink lady will be down this year.
In the fifth spot, Oregon projection is forecast to be up 40% year-over-year with an estimated crop size of 3.9 million bushels.
Variety estimates
Remaining in the top spot is gala, with a projected 47 million bushels or about 16% of U.S. production. Red delicious remains in the second spot with about 39 million bushels, or about 13% of total U.S. production. Honeycrisp is up a spot, coming in third with 34 million bushels or 12% of the U.S. total production. Rounding out the top five are granny smith at 32 million bushels, 11% of U.S. total production, and fuji at 25 million bushels or 9% of the U.S. total production.
Gerlach says this year’s forecast shows pink lady and Cosmic Crisp both trending upward.
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