The California pistachio industry’s volume is expected to slow over the next five years, while farmgate value is expected to increase, Rabobank’s market insights branch, RaboResearch, reports.
According to the financial entity, the industry is entering a mature phase, with bearing acreage growth expected to level off by 2030. As output declines, prices are projected to increase, which forecasts say will push the industry over the $3 million valuation this season.
According to RaboResearch, the average annual California pistachio output will remain below two billion pounds this season, and production in the next five years will track under that threshold.
The 2025/26 season is projected to reach 1.6 billion pounds, a 40 percent year-over-year increase, though still below the initial 1.8 billion-pound industry estimate.
For 2026/27, the report projects a more conservative output range between 970 million and 1.23 billion pounds.
This season’s California pistachio projected outcome contrasts with the 2020/21 and 2022/23 seasons, when supply exceeded consumption and pricing suffered.