Posts Tagged “California pistachio shipments”
The California pistachio harvest started early, with Nichols Farms getting underway August 11. Usually, the harvest in the state starts around late August or early September.
The Hansford, CA based company reports this year’s production volume is expected to be drastically lower compared to average. Total yields are predicted to be anywhere between 600 and 800 million pounds, down at least 50 percent from last year’s near record yield.
In 2025, growers in the state harvested a total of 1.6 billion pounds.
The decline is mostly due to early spring heat waves which caused the male pistachio trees’ pollen to become infertile. This has significantly impacted the number of female trees that were successfully pollinated to produce fruit.
According to the Administrative Committee for Pistachios, California produced a record 1.5 billion pounds of pistachios in 2023. The industry surpassed that figure in 2025 with a 1.6 billion-pound crop, a 484 per cent increase compared with 2015. During the same period, exports rose by 223 per cent between the 2014/15 and 2024/25 crop years.
Demand has continued to support the market. U.S. per capita availability increased from 0.23 pounds of shelled pistachios in the 2015/16 crop year to nearly 0.70 pounds today. Export shipments have also reached record levels in recent years. Demand has also been supported by the growing use of pistachios as an ingredient in products such as the Dubai chocolate, first introduced in 2022 and later followed by similar products from several international brands.
Pistachios are an alternate-bearing crop, and early hot weather has further reduced yield expectations, particularly in orchards south of Fresno County. Some growers estimate total production could range from 700 million to 900 million pounds, less than half the 2025 crop.
The report concludes that California pistachio production in 2026 is expected to fall below 2025 levels.
The California pistachio industry’s volume is expected to slow over the next five years, while farmgate value is expected to increase, Rabobank’s market insights branch, RaboResearch, reports.
According to the financial entity, the industry is entering a mature phase, with bearing acreage growth expected to level off by 2030. As output declines, prices are projected to increase, which forecasts say will push the industry over the $3 million valuation this season.
According to RaboResearch, the average annual California pistachio output will remain below two billion pounds this season, and production in the next five years will track under that threshold.
The 2025/26 season is projected to reach 1.6 billion pounds, a 40 percent year-over-year increase, though still below the initial 1.8 billion-pound industry estimate.
For 2026/27, the report projects a more conservative output range between 970 million and 1.23 billion pounds.
This season’s California pistachio projected outcome contrasts with the 2020/21 and 2022/23 seasons, when supply exceeded consumption and pricing suffered.
Despite what is considered an off year for production, the California Pistachio crop could be the second largest on record because of more acreage.
Coming in at about 1 billion pounds, the California crop is weighing in just under last year’s record 1.05 billion pounds. Industry leaders also predict strong domestic and international markets this year.
Pistachios rank No. 4 among California’s top agricultural commodities, behind milk, almonds and grapes. In 2020, the crop’s production value was $2.87 billion.
Industry group the American Pistachio Growers report the nuts are much smaller than normal, but there are more of them.
In July, predictions had the crop coming in between 850 million to 940 million pounds due to drought and heat, but tonnage reports from packers and processors September 30 showed higher volumes than predicted.
Growers in the San Joaquin Valley report large yields, thanks to the fertile soils, hot, arid climate and moderate winters.
Harvest started in late August and the second shakes on trees wrapped up in the third week of October.
One billion pounds is a large volume for this “off” year in the pistachio industry. Pistachios are alternate-bearing, meaning the trees produce a heavy crop yield one year and a lighter yield the next. This year is technically an “off” year for the crop, so growers say they expect a crop well above a billion pounds in 2022, an “on” year.
According to the U.S. Administrative Committee for Pistachios, Iran follows the U.S. as the world’s second largest pistachio producer, producing a total crop of more than 418 million pounds in 2020. This year, however, the Iran Pistachio Association reported that Iranian growers lost about 50% of their crop due to severe frost and heat damages.
According to a report from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, Turkey, the third-largest pistachio producing nation, is also expected to have a “very low” crop this year compared to average.
These global production losses leave gaps for U.S. producers to fill. About 65% to 70% of U.S. pistachios are exported, so this year’s global market is in America’s favor.