The USDA’s citrus forecast for February shows that the Florida citrus industry continues to struggle. Production volumes for all categories are projected to drop year over year.
The state’s all-orange forecast, released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, is 11.5 million boxes, down 500,000 from the January forecast. This represents a 36% drop from last season’s final production.
The forecast consists of 4.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
The report indicates that Valencia oranges’ current fruit size is below average and is projected to remain below average at harvest.
For non-Valencia oranges, the Row Count survey conducted January 28-29, 2025, showed 95% of the early and mid-season rows, excluding Navels, are harvested.
Grapefruit forecast
With 62% of the grapefruit rows harvested, the report shows that overall grapefruit production is forecast to be down 100,000 boxes from January. Total grapefruit output is expected to be 1.10 million boxes, down from last season’s 1.78 million.
However, white and red grapefruit’s final size are above average.
The total lemon output is forecast at 600,000 boxes, carried over from the January forecast.
Tangerines and Mandarins
Even though the forecast for tangerines and tangelos increased by 50,000 boxes from the January forecast, the total output expected for the season is still 22% lower than the 450,000 boxes during the previous season.