Blue Diamond Growers and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) expect the 2026 California almond crop to remain close to recent seasons, although growers continue to face pressure from rising input costs, water restrictions, and weather-related challenges.
Blue Diamond Growers of Sacramento, CA estimates the 2026 crop could range between 2.675 billion and 2.72 billion pounds, with current conditions pointing to approximately 2.69 billion pounds. Separately, NASS forecast the California almond crop at 2.7 billion pounds, down 1 per cent from the previous year, with projected yields unchanged at 1,940 pounds per acre.
The estimates are based on grower surveys, orchard comparisons, field observations, acreage data, and regional yield analysis. Blue Diamond said its in-field assessments covered more than 19,300 kilometres of orchard observations across California.
According to Land IQ, California’s standing almond acreage for 2026 is estimated at 565,753 hectares, with bearing acreage at 560,812 hectares after accounting for projected removals. This marks the first decline in bearing acreage since 1995.
Blue Diamond noted that grower economics continue to affect orchard management. Returns remained below US$2 per pound in four of the past five years, often below production costs. As a result, some growers reduced spending on pest management and nutrition programs, while others abandoned orchards.
The cooperative also reported higher fuel, fertiliser, and groundwater pumping costs for the 2026 season, linked partly to conflict in the Middle East. Fertiliser costs are estimated to be up 30 per cent from last year.
Water availability also remains a factor. According to the report, Fresno, Kern, and Madera counties account for 44 per cent of projected orchard removals for the 2025/26 season. State and federal water allocations currently stand at 30 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.
Bloom conditions also affected crop development. Blue Diamond said low chilling hours, elevated bloom temperatures, reduced bee activity, and rapid flower development limited pollination in some orchards. March temperatures may also affect kernel size, while crop development is estimated to be running around two weeks ahead of normal.
Regional differences remain across California’s production areas. Storms during bloom affected pollination in parts of the Sacramento Valley, while the Southern San Joaquin Valley continues to face variable orchard conditions linked to groundwater restrictions and uneven surface-water access.
“According to the polled growers, the industry is expecting a modestly smaller crop in 2026 compared to last year. This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months,” said Almond Board of California President and CEO Clarice Turner.