California’s 2026 pistachio harvest is estimated at 655 million pounds (297,100 tons), down from a record 1.57 billion pounds (712,100 tons) in 2025. A March heat wave and the crop’s alternate-bearing cycle contributed to the decline.
Ten days of temperatures exceeding 32°C disrupted pollination, causing early male flowering, pollen sterilisation and female bud drop. Growers reported increased blank nuts, unsplit shells and reduced yields.
Jason Giannelli of R&G Fanucchi reported Kerman yields averaging 224 kg per hectare across 61 hectares, compared with 3,138 kg per hectare for Golden Hills on another 61 hectares.
Fresno, Kern and Tulare counties estimated losses exceeding US$839 million across more than 136,700 hectares and requested a federal disaster declaration.
Jeff Nichols of Nichols Farms said higher grower prices would not offset the reduced harvest. “Overall, the crop revenue to the grower is going to decrease.”
Suppliers expect to restrict allocations as availability tightens. Iran and Turkey are also anticipating smaller harvests.
For 2027, Nichols estimates potential U.S. pistachio output of 1.76 billion to 1.9 billion pounds (798,300 to 861,800 tons), depending on flowering conditions and yields.