Posts Tagged “Mexican tomato exports”
Mexico’s 2026 tomato production is forecast at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT), a 9 percent decrease
from 2025, according to a report from the USDA.
This is mainly a result of the continued imposition of a 17 percent antidumping duty on U.S.
imports of Mexican tomatoes, reduced profit margins for producers, and weather conditions. This
reduction in production is expected to contribute to a forecasted 9 percent decrease in tomato exports to
1.8 MMT in 2026. The United States remains Mexico’s top export market for tomatoes, typically
importing over 90 percent of Mexico’s exportable supply.
Mexican tomato production is expected to continue the downward trend that began in 2023. For calendar
year (CY) 2026, tomato production is forecast to decrease 9 percent to 2.6 MMT. This is mainly a result
of ongoing market disruptions (including the 17 percent antidumping duty on U.S. imports of Mexican
tomatoes), reduced profit margins for producers, and unfavorable weather conditions. Planted area is
forecast at 38,000 hectares for CY 2026, an 11 percent decrease from CY 2025. Post also expects a
reduction in area dedicated to open skies planting in favor of shifting production to protected systems,
including greenhouses and shaded structures.
In July 2025, the U.S. government terminated the 2019 suspension agreement with Mexico and imposed
an antidumping duty of 17.09 percent on most Mexican fresh tomato imports. This duty, combined with
the appreciation of the Mexican peso in 2025 and early 2026, has squeezed profit margins for many
Mexican tomato producers and exporters. The value of the Mexican peso increased by 14 percent in
2025 and 2 percent through April 2026. Mexican tomato exports typically enter the U.S. market through
negotiated contracts in fixed U.S. dollar (USD) prices or the spot market. The peso appreciation has
reduced the number of pesos Mexican exporters receive for each dollar of tomato sales to international
markets. According to industry reports, these factors have also led to some consolidation in the market
and growers transitioning to other crops in the face of uncertainty.
Mexico produces tomatoes in 31 out of 32 states and utilizes three production methods for tomatoes:
open skies (low tech), shaded infrastructure with some automatic irrigation (medium tech), and
greenhouse and substrate production with advanced irrigation (high tech). Protected agriculture (medium
and high tech) is the main mechanism for tomato production in Mexico, representing about 65 percent of
total production. Low tech producers obtain between 45 to 75 MT per hectare. Medium tech offers
yields that reach an estimated 140 to 215 MT per hectare. High tech producers (especially the specialty
In July 2025, the U.S. government terminated the 2019 suspension agreement with Mexico and imposed
an antidumping duty of 17.09 percent on most Mexican fresh tomato imports. This duty, combined with
the appreciation of the Mexican peso in 2025 and early 2026, has squeezed profit margins for many
Mexican tomato producers and exporters. The value of the Mexican peso increased by 14 percent in
2025 and 2 percent through April 2026. Mexican tomato exports typically enter the U.S. market through
negotiated contracts in fixed U.S. dollar (USD) prices or the spot market. The peso appreciation has
reduced the number of pesos Mexican exporters receive for each dollar of tomato sales to international
markets. According to industry reports, these factors have also led to some consolidation in the market
and growers transitioning to other crops in the face of uncertainty.
Mexico produces tomatoes in 31 out of 32 states and utilizes three production methods for tomatoes:
open skies (low tech), shaded infrastructure with some automatic irrigation (medium tech), and
greenhouse and substrate production with advanced irrigation (high tech). Protected agriculture (medium
and high tech) is the main mechanism for tomato production in Mexico, representing about 65 percent of
total production. Low tech producers obtain between 45 to 75 MT per hectare. Medium tech offers
yields that reach an estimated 140 to 215 MT per hectare. High tech producers (especially the specialty
tomatoes growers) can obtain between 250 and 300 MT per hectare. The most advanced production
methods include greenhouse infrastructure, controlled climate, substrate as a soil, and drip irrigation
with minerals that support ideal plant growth.
Mexico produces a broad range of tomato varieties that are ripened on the vine, including traditional
varieties (Round and Roma) and specialty varieties (Cherry, Grape, and Heirloom).
Mexican fresh tomato shipments for 2023 are predicted to hit 3.87 million metric tons, a 2% increase over the Mexican government’s official 2022 production estimate of 3.8 million metric tons, according to the USDA.
“Stable U.S. demand and increasing adoption of greenhouse technologies account for the uptick in year-on-year production growth,” the report said.
The USDA also forecasts Mexico’s 2023 fresh tomato exports at 2.06 million metric tons, a 5% increase over 2022, due to expected higher production, stagnant domestic consumption and robust U.S. demand.
Although exports to the U.S. occur year-round and are consistently above 100,000 metric tons per month, the largest volume of exports generally occurs from January to March and from October to December.
In 2022, the report said Mexico exported over 1.81 million metric tons of tomatoes to the U.S. and accounted for about 91% market of tomatoes imported into the U.S.
Sinaloa remains Mexico’s largest tomato-producing state and accounts for 22% of total production, followed by San Luis Potosi, Michoacán, Zacatecas and Jalisco.
Mexico’s tomato exports to the U.S. will remain strong due to robust supplies and flat Mexican consumption.
Mexican tomato production occurs throughout the year with two overlapping production and harvest peaks, the report said. From December to April, the state of Sinaloa — Mexico’s largest open-field and shade house tomato producer — dominates the domestic market and exports over 80% of its crop to the U.S., according to the report.
During the period from May to November, the states of San Luis Potosi followed by Michoacán, Zacatecas, Jalisco, Baja California Sur, Sonora, Morelos, and Puebla become major suppliers, the report said.
According to the Mexican government’s Agrifood and Fisheries Information Service, the official 2022 production estimate reached 3.8 million metric tons.
Sinaloa’s production in 2022 totaled 821,000 metric tons, followed by San Luis Potosi with 475,149 metric tons, Michoacán with 322,153 metric tons, Zacatecas with 244,706 metric tons, Jalisco with 197,946 metric tons and Baja California Sur with 189,659 metric tons.
San Luis Potosi, Michoacán, Zacatecas and Jalisco account for over 55% of national production, but tomatoes are grown throughout the country, the report said.
“While Sinaloa currently remains Mexico’s largest state-level producer, most of the overall production growth is dispersed across San Luis Potosi, Michoacan, Jalisco, as well as other smaller producing states,” the report said.
Mexico exports over half of its annual tomato production, and growers throughout the country use greenhouses, shade houses, high-tunnel systems and other climate-control technologies to supply the U.S. market year-round, the report said. In fact, Mexican government sources reveal that 67% of tomato production is grown under controlled conditions, the report said.
The greatest volume of Mexican tomatoes imported into the U.S. enters through the Laredo (Texas) Customs District, followed by the Nogales (Ariz.) and San Diego Customs Districts, the report said.
The Laredo District has four important ports of entry for fresh tomato shipments, chiefly Pharr, Laredo, Brownsville and Progreso. In comparison, the Nogales and San Diego Customs Districts each have just one port of entry for tomatoes, the report said.
Mexican tomato exports will set a new record in 2021.
The USDA reports Mexico is already broke a record in 2020, with the value of shipments increasing by 20.5 percent and volume increasing 5.1 percent over the previous year.
Between January and March 2021 tomato exports totaled $829 million reflecting an increase of 5.1 percent year-over-year, with almost all of those shipments destined to the U.S.
Restaurant and hotel industry re-openings in the U.S. and Mexico, plus the renegotiation of the Tomato Suspension Agreement, and higher export prices have led to more tomato plantings.
Tomatoes already were the most exported agricultural product by Mexico, with a constant growth in recent years.
In terms of volume, Mexican tomato exports were 579,000 tons, reflecting an increase of 9.5 percent in the first quarter of 2021.
The USDA estimates Mexican tomato exports for the 2021-2022 season (October-September) will total 1.83 million tons, 2 percent higher than the previous cycle. While for the 2020-2021 season, the USDA estimates exports will be 1.8 million tons.
Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. in 2020-21 are expected to increase 2 percent compared with 2019-20 levels, according to the USDA.
Mexico tomato exports tomatoes have increased from $406 million in 1995 to $2 billion in 2019, and the U.S. accounts for 99.7 percent of all Mexican exports. Mexico’s tomato planted area from October 2019 to March 2021 is forecast at 114,928 acres, 3 percent higher than the previous year.
The USDA annual report on Mexican tomatoes forecasts exports to the U.S. from October to September 2021 will total 1.87 million metric tons, 2 percent above the previous year.
Since Mexican tomatoes are produced in a fall/winter cycle and a spring/summer cycle, the USDA measures the agricultural production year over 18 months to capture all growing areas.
Mexican tomato production for agricultural year 2020 (October 2019 to March 2021) is forecast at 3.33 million metric tons according to Mexico’s Agrifood and Fisheries Information System. That is 3 percent lower than the previous agricultural year because of volatile weather in Sinaloa during the fall and winter cycle and acreage reductions.
The forecast for agricultural year 2021 (October 2020 to March 2022) is 3.47 million metric tons.