Citrus Shipping Forecast for Florida, California and Texas

Citrus Shipping Forecast for Florida, California and Texas

U.S. orange shipments are forecast to be down 11 percent for the 2020-21 shipping season, although the biggest plunge is from Florida, which has oranges mostly for processing.

The U.S. orange forecast for the 2020-2021 season is 4.65 million tons, down 11% from the 2019-20 season, the USDA reports.

The Florida orange forecast, at 57 million 90-pound boxes (2.57 million tons), is off 15 percent from last season.

On average, about 96 percent of Florida oranges are processed into orange juice, according to Florida Department of Citrus statistics.

Florida’s early, mid-season, and navel varieties are forecast at 23 million boxes (1.04 million tons), down 22 percent from last season’s final shipments. The Florida valencia orange forecast, at 34 million boxes (1.53 million tons), is down 10 percent from a year ago.

Florida’s 2020-21 grapefruit volume also is down at 4.5 million (85-pound) boxes. The 2020-21 estimate is down 7.3 percent compared with last season. About 40 percent of Florida’s grapefruit crop is shipped to the fresh market.

Florida’s production of tangerines and mandarins rose 7.8 percent, from 1.02 million 95-pound boxes in 2019-20 to a forecast 1.1 million boxes in 2020-21. Just more than half of Florida’s tangerines and mandarins are shipped fresh.


In California, where three out of four oranges are sold fresh, orange shipments are predicted to hit 50.5 million 80-pound boxes (2.02 million tons), down 5 percent from last season’s final utilization. The California navel orange forecast is 42 million boxes (1.68 million tons), down 5 percent from last season’s final utilization. The California valencia orange forecast is 8.5 million boxes (340,000 tons), down 6 percent from last season.

Mandarin/tangerine loadings are forecast to be at 23 million 80-pound boxes (920,000 tons), up 4.5 percent from last season’s output of 22 million boxes. About 75 percent of California’s mandarins/tangerines are sold fresh.

Grapefruit production in California is projected unchanged from a year ago, at 3.8 million 80-pound boxes. About 40 percent of California grapefruit is sold fresh. 
 Lemon loadings in California in the 2020-21 season is forecast at 22 million 80-pound boxes (880,000 tons), down 14 percent from last season. The Arizona lemon forecast is 1.3 million (80-pound) boxes (52,000 tons), down 28 percent from last season. About 70% of U.S. lemons are sold fresh.


The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.50 million 85-pound boxes (64,000 tons), is up 12 percent from last season. Forty percent of Texas oranges are sold fresh.

Texas grapefruit output is pegged at 4.9 million 80-pound boxes, up 11 percent compared with 4.4 million boxes in 2019-20. About 40 percent of Texas grapefruit is sold fresh.