Florida is expected to produce 44.5 million boxes of oranges this year, which would be the smallest since the 1944-45 season when 42.23 million boxes were produced, according to the USDA. This will be an even smaller crop than when Hurricane Irma hit Florida several years ago.
Citrus disease and poor growing conditions are the primary factors. Meanwhile, demand for orange juice, which has been declining for years, has increased during the pandemic.
The result is higher orange juice prices, and those increasing costs are expected to continue: Frozen orange juice futures have surged more than 50% during the pandemic.
The anticipated spike in orange juice prices comes as consumers are already facing inflation across multiple sectors. The US consumer price index rose 7% over the past year before seasonal adjustments, the steepest climb in prices since June 1982, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported recently.
Over the past year, food consumed at home was 6.5% more expensive while prices at restaurants rose 6%. Fruit juice and nonalcoholic drink prices have already spiked 5.7% this year, and orange juice futures are up.
Florida supplies most of the country’s orange juice, but supplies have been dwindling for years.