Mexican avocado shipments are looking at yet another year of rapid growth in 2026, according to a March report by the USDA.
The document puts production at 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), noting a three percent year-on-year rise as strong US demand continues to pull supply north.
Exports are projected to be up to 1.31 MMT, with the US absorbing nearly 90 percent of total shipments. Demand tied to major sporting events, such as February’s Super Bowl, and holidays like Independence Day and Labor Day, is expected to underpin the outlook.
Total exports reached 1.22 MMT in 2025, up two percent from the previous year, with shipments to the United States totaling 1.08 MMT.
By all accounts, Mexico will maintain its leading position as the world’s top avocado producer and exporter, accounting for about 28 percent of global output.
The report also notes that improved weather conditions and production practices are setting the stage for an even larger, higher-quality crop in 2026. Planted area, however, is forecast to remain flat at about 662,000 acres. But yields are trending higher.
Late-season rains in 2025 extended into November and early December, replenishing aquifers in key production regions. Combined with mild December temperatures ranging between 68 and 73 degrees Fahrenheit, strong flowering and fruit set are expected to improve size profiles.
Orchard management has also been key to the sector’s sustained growth. While about 65 percent of the groves still depend on rainfall, producers in Michoacán and Jalisco are accelerating the adoption of pressurized irrigation systems to improve water use and nutrient delivery.
The neighboring states in western Mexico are the only ones approved for exports to the US and account for 85 percent of the country’s total output.