Mexico’s 2026 tomato production is forecast at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT), a 9 percent decrease
from 2025, according to a report from the USDA.
This is mainly a result of the continued imposition of a 17 percent antidumping duty on U.S.
imports of Mexican tomatoes, reduced profit margins for producers, and weather conditions. This
reduction in production is expected to contribute to a forecasted 9 percent decrease in tomato exports to
1.8 MMT in 2026. The United States remains Mexico’s top export market for tomatoes, typically
importing over 90 percent of Mexico’s exportable supply.
Mexican tomato production is expected to continue the downward trend that began in 2023. For calendar
year (CY) 2026, tomato production is forecast to decrease 9 percent to 2.6 MMT. This is mainly a result
of ongoing market disruptions (including the 17 percent antidumping duty on U.S. imports of Mexican
tomatoes), reduced profit margins for producers, and unfavorable weather conditions. Planted area is
forecast at 38,000 hectares for CY 2026, an 11 percent decrease from CY 2025. Post also expects a
reduction in area dedicated to open skies planting in favor of shifting production to protected systems,
including greenhouses and shaded structures.
In July 2025, the U.S. government terminated the 2019 suspension agreement with Mexico and imposed
an antidumping duty of 17.09 percent on most Mexican fresh tomato imports. This duty, combined with
the appreciation of the Mexican peso in 2025 and early 2026, has squeezed profit margins for many
Mexican tomato producers and exporters. The value of the Mexican peso increased by 14 percent in
2025 and 2 percent through April 2026. Mexican tomato exports typically enter the U.S. market through
negotiated contracts in fixed U.S. dollar (USD) prices or the spot market. The peso appreciation has
reduced the number of pesos Mexican exporters receive for each dollar of tomato sales to international
markets. According to industry reports, these factors have also led to some consolidation in the market
and growers transitioning to other crops in the face of uncertainty.
Mexico produces tomatoes in 31 out of 32 states and utilizes three production methods for tomatoes:
open skies (low tech), shaded infrastructure with some automatic irrigation (medium tech), and
greenhouse and substrate production with advanced irrigation (high tech). Protected agriculture (medium
and high tech) is the main mechanism for tomato production in Mexico, representing about 65 percent of
total production. Low tech producers obtain between 45 to 75 MT per hectare. Medium tech offers
yields that reach an estimated 140 to 215 MT per hectare. High tech producers (especially the specialty
In July 2025, the U.S. government terminated the 2019 suspension agreement with Mexico and imposed
an antidumping duty of 17.09 percent on most Mexican fresh tomato imports. This duty, combined with
the appreciation of the Mexican peso in 2025 and early 2026, has squeezed profit margins for many
Mexican tomato producers and exporters. The value of the Mexican peso increased by 14 percent in
2025 and 2 percent through April 2026. Mexican tomato exports typically enter the U.S. market through
negotiated contracts in fixed U.S. dollar (USD) prices or the spot market. The peso appreciation has
reduced the number of pesos Mexican exporters receive for each dollar of tomato sales to international
markets. According to industry reports, these factors have also led to some consolidation in the market
and growers transitioning to other crops in the face of uncertainty.
Mexico produces tomatoes in 31 out of 32 states and utilizes three production methods for tomatoes:
open skies (low tech), shaded infrastructure with some automatic irrigation (medium tech), and
greenhouse and substrate production with advanced irrigation (high tech). Protected agriculture (medium
and high tech) is the main mechanism for tomato production in Mexico, representing about 65 percent of
total production. Low tech producers obtain between 45 to 75 MT per hectare. Medium tech offers
yields that reach an estimated 140 to 215 MT per hectare. High tech producers (especially the specialty
tomatoes growers) can obtain between 250 and 300 MT per hectare. The most advanced production
methods include greenhouse infrastructure, controlled climate, substrate as a soil, and drip irrigation
with minerals that support ideal plant growth.
Mexico produces a broad range of tomato varieties that are ripened on the vine, including traditional
varieties (Round and Roma) and specialty varieties (Cherry, Grape, and Heirloom).