New York – The number of U.S. restaurants – including chain franchises and independent stores – has not yet rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, and is still meaningfully lower than what it was before the advent of COVID-19, according to Nick Cole, Head of Restaurant and Hospitality Finance at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (NYSE: MUFG).
With the end of 2022, Cole shares several viewpoints on the restaurant industry.
Restaurant supply remains low
“The number of restaurants per capita is at its lowest point in 25 years against a backdrop of population growth,” Cole notes. “This supply/demand imbalance bodes well for restaurant chains even in the face of potential softening demand as we head into 2023.”
Although restaurant supply is down, Cole does not expect a significant increase in new developments in the near future as construction costs and building supply availability remain prohibitive factors.
Customers have been resilient in the face of economic strain
Cole adds that the decline in restaurant capacity due to the pandemic explains why restaurants have been able to pass on higher operating costs and rising inflation to the customer in the form of price increases, even as customers themselves endure the financial pressures of inflation with greater household expenses.
“Throughout much of the year, we have seen consistently higher sales figures due to rising menu prices and stable foot traffic. However, in the last month or two there are signs that foot traffic might be slowing,” Cole says. “If foot traffic continues to decline significantly, even an offset in prices might not be able to sustain revenue.”
Cole explains that demand starts to slow down when the impact on household budgets makes customers reevaluate their spending patterns, and he expects this trend to continue into 2023 as customers absorb the significant hike in the cost of living.
Margin compression and low M&A
As Cole and his team anticipated in November 2021, M&A has been constrained in 2022 because of margin pressures due to rising commodity prices, workforce shortages, and the need for higher expenditures to attract labor. “The current inflationary environment and resulting margin compression has hurt business results and is therefore driving M&A activity down,” Cole says. He anticipates business performance in the first half of 2023 to be better than in 2022 and potentially spur a pick-up in M&A.
Labor pressures continue to ease
Compared with this time last year, labor pressure has eased significantly within the restaurant sector, Cole says. “Most restaurants report that they are fully staffed now, however it is costing them more to do it. Ultimately, while it is still not easy to staff, pressure has been relieved across the board.”
About MUFG and MUFG Americas Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is one of the world’s leading financial groups. Headquartered in Tokyo and with over 360 years of history, MUFG has a global network with approximately 2,100 locations in more than 50 countries. MUFG has nearly 160,000 employees and offers services including commercial banking, trust banking, securities, credit cards, consumer finance, asset management, and leasing. The Group aims to “be the world’s most trusted financial group” through close collaboration among our operating companies and flexibly respond to all the financial needs of our customers, serving society, and fostering shared and sustainable growth for a better world. MUFG’s shares trade on the Tokyo, Nagoya, and New York stock exchanges.
MUFG’s Americas operations, including its offices in the U.S., Latin America, and Canada, are primarily organized under MUFG Bank, Ltd. and subsidiaries, and are focused on Global Corporate and Investment Banking, Japanese Corporate Banking, and Global Markets. MUFG is one of the largest foreign banking organizations in the Americas. For locations, banking capabilities and services, career opportunities, and more, visit www.mufgamericas.com.
California almond production in the 2022-2023 season is expected to drop 11%, according to the USDA.
California’s driest three-year period on record has spurred unprecedented cuts to usual water supplies, driving up costs. That’s forcing some producers to tear out orchards in favor of other crops, or simply stop watering trees.
California supplies 80% of the world’s almonds and volume is shrinking for the first time in over 25 years. This is the result of the state’s historic drought which is leading farmers to abandon orchards or forgo new plantings altogether.
The state had an estimated 1.64 million acres at the end of August, down slightly from a year earlier, according to the Almond Board of California. Further, the number of new trees planted from 2020 but are not yet bearing almonds fell 17%.
Orlando, FL. — The National Mango Board is celebrating mangos breaking the top ten in whole fruit volume velocity. In 2017, Mango held the number 17 spot. Mango’s movement to mainstream, along with support from the mango industry and retail partners has contributed to this growth throughout the last 5 years.
Adding to mango’s success, mango volume grew +0.7% in volume velocity versus a year ago while the fruit category as a whole decreased in volume by -3.5%. We know mango as the world’s most versatile and flavorful superfruit. We are thrilled to see that more and more people are inclined to agree while embracing the joy of mango.
Many resources, education, and hard work went into achieving this substantial growth. Congratulations to the retailers and entire mango industry that contributed to this achievement.
About the National Mango Board
The National Mango Board is an agriculture promotion group supported by assessments from both domestic and imported fresh mangos. The board’s vision, for mangos to move from being an exotic fruit to a daily necessity in every U.S. household, was designed to drive awareness and consumption of mangos in the U.S. marketplace. One serving or ¾ cup of the superfruit mango contains 70 calories, 50% of daily value of vitamin C, 15% of daily value of folate, 15% of daily value of copper, 8% of daily value o
Wonderful Citrus headquartered in Delano, CA reports its Halo loadings could be down about 2 percent this season, due to torrential California rains. The company accounts for 25% to 30% of the total category volume in North America.
Any decline in the fruit this season is being attributed to unharvested citrus. Soaked land in a grove can suffer substantial damage from harvest equipment.
This winter the greatest rainfall is flooding the central and northern parts of the San Joaquin Valley. Wonderful grows Halos through much of the valley’s 200-mile length, ending at Madera north of Fresno.
Recent precipitation levels across the state are well above average for this time of year at about 130-160% of average. Still, despite the storms, most major reservoirs – before the January 9 storm – were still anywhere between 40-60% of their historical average fill.
Wonderful Citrus has geographically and climatically diverse plantings to optimize market availability through the season. The strategy also helps dodge widespread damage, as is being proven this month.
Halos are shipped from November until about June. In recent years, new varieties were planted to extend this season from mid-May. Halos’ largest volume peaks in February and March. Last year’s volume was very light. The 2022-23 supply is up at least 20 percent.
Halos shipped from November into early January are Clementines. In the second half of the shipping season, the Halos brand is composed of mandarins, Tango, and Western Murcott.
While Wonderful Halos are shipped across North America, the heaviest distribution is in the central United States, as well as the length of the eastern seaboard. To a lesser extent, the company has a presence west of the Rockies.
Torrential rains and flooding in the Salinas Valley has continued and many growers are looking to other areas for spring plantings.
Church Bros. Farms of Salinas, CA expects shipping gaps this spring for vegetables.
Normally leafy greens harvest in Salinas starts about April 1. That harvest date requires a Jan. 1 planting. Salinas growers – with those in much of California’s Central Valley – received constant waves of torrential rainfall through the first two weeks of January. The Salinas River is overflowing.
Cole crops in the Salinas Valley are planted in November and December. Those plantings are lost. Church reports two of its growers have 2,000 acres underwater. In all, 20,000 acres are flooded in the valley. However, the company is unsure exactly how much of that total is cultivated. Some of that acreage will have to be disked if it was already planted with crops.
The grower/shipper reports loss of acres could create a gap in April and the following months as there are new food safety rules in place which did not exist in 1995. These rules restrict planting fields that were affected by the flood waters for 60 days and the soil must be sufficiently dried out. After 30 days, growers have to test the soil again before it can plant.
The company indicates that the Salinas River level in 1995 reached 30 feet and the flood level was 23 feet. Church notes that in a recent comparison photo, the river was measured at 24.6 feet and the damage was nowhere near what it was in 1995.
Some growers were already shifting to plant in Yuma. That inherent danger is the potential crop-killing heat in April. If those fields can withstand heat through April 10-20 they will still be better off than trying to plant using a pontoon boat in Salinas. Other growers are planting in Mexico to compensate for saturated Salinas fields.
The Giant Co. of Carlisle, Pa., is inviting shoppers to jump-start the new year with tips and recipe inspiration for creating balanced and affordable meals and snacks. Its team of dietitians is offering free, live classes via Zoom for families and chefs of all ages this January and February.
“Bring more balance to your meal planning this year,” Holly Doan, dietitian with The Giant Co., said in a release. “Whether incorporating more produce, filling up with fiber or trying some new quick and easy meals, let The Giant Company dietitians help you start fresh in 2023.”
Here’s a look at The Giant Co.’s dietitian classes offered in the next couple of months:
Produce Spotlight: Join the dietitians every Monday at 12 p.m. in January to explore seasonal produce and all the ways it strengthens immune systems with featured recipes like Thai Mango and Cucumber Salad and Peanut Butter and Banana French Toast. Then in February, the dietitians explore red, yellow, green and blue color groups and the many benefits of eating a rainbow of fruits and veggies.
Wellbeing Workshops: In January, discover new finds and familiar favorites in the Guiding Star-rated products in each grocery department throughout a virtual store tour series. Celebrate Heart Health Month in February with classes like Mediterranean diet, filling up with fiber and heart-healthy flavors.
Build a Balanced: In January, keep your family warm and satisfied all winter long with inspiration and recipes from the dietitians’ Build a Balanced Soup series Tuesdays at 12 p.m. in honor of National Soup Month. In February, the series continues highlighting easy and affordable ideas for building a balanced spaghetti night, salad, dessert and oatmeal bowl.
Family Meals at 5: The Giant Co. dietitians are here to help build easy, quick and balanced meals in under 30 minutes every Tuesday at 5 p.m. January classes feature a Take 5 theme, where recipes like corn-stuffed peppers and teriyaki pork and pineapple with rice will be five or less ingredients. Then in February, stay in and celebrate Valentine’s evening with sirloin steak with asparagus and tomato orzo.
The Giant Co. dietitians are also kicking off the new year with some special classes on select Thursdays at 7 p.m. Consumers can check out Ask the Dietitian classes on Jan. 5 and Feb. 23, Movie Trivia Night for National Popcorn Day on Jan. 19 and Big Game Party on Feb. 9.
Also, visit The Giant Co. dietitians’ YouTube channel for a new Meal Deal Series, dropping every Friday morning. In these short videos, consumers will learn all about the featured Meal Deal, as well as specials and offers in that week’s circular.
All classes are free to attend, but advance registration is required for each class. A complete listing of all The Giant Co. virtual classes and ingredients needed for each class are also available on the event page. In addition, customers can earn 50 Choice Rewards points when they register, provide their card number and attend the entire class.
The USDA is projecting a 51% decrease in overall production for Florida citrus, with both Valencia and Non-Valencia oranges showing the biggest drops.
According to the entity’s Agricultural Statistics Board, harvest for next month will close at 20 million boxes. This is down 8 million from the October forecast.
The Sunshine State’s produce industry is among the most affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, with many vegetable production areas flooded in the Everglades. This negatively impacted both growing plots and yields, as crop planting was largely just beginning when Ian hit Southwest Florida.
Regarding varieties, Valencia oranges would show the largest decline in production with 13 million boxes, down 4 million from the October forecast. Current fruit size is below the minimum compared to the previous 10 seasons, the report states.
This is similar to the projection for non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), which is also to decrease by 4 million, dropping to 13 boxes. Fruit size is currently below average and is projected to remain so at harvest.
Grapefruit production is also expected to decrease by 200,000 boxes to 1.8 total. Red grapefruit forecast lowered from 180,000 to 1.62 million boxes, while white grapefruit forecast decreased 20,000 boxes to 180,000.
Tangerine and tangelo yields are also predicted to go down by 100,000 boxes, for a total of 600,000.
“Chances are 2 out of 3 that the current all orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 8.4 percent, or 8.3 percent excluding abnormal seasons (three hurricane seasons). Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 14.5 percent, or 14.4 percent excluding abnormal seasons,” the report said.
The National Football League’s Buffalo Bills and SnapDragon apple have formed a partnership to raise awareness of the fruit in Eastern markets, according to Crunch Time Apple Growers, Lockport, NY.
“Our partnership with the Buffalo Bills has really been the highlight of our marketing efforts this season,” Jessica Wells of the grower/shipper said. “SnapDragon being the official apple of the team has presented lots of opportunities for promotion and partnership, bringing great awareness to the brand.”
Crunch Time Apple Growers’ 150 growers produce SnapDragon and RubyFrost apples in New York state. The growers’ cooperative is supported by 11 sales organizations in New York, Pennsylvania and Michigan, and fruit is marketed across the country, Wells said.
“Our fruit is primarily conventional, though there is a very small amount of acreage being grown organically,” she said.
This marketing season so far has seen strong movement of SnapDragon apples, Wells said.
Despite inflation and a weakening economy, Wells said the variety has experienced good demand this season.
“We have been pleasantly surprised by the strong movement of SnapDragon since the beginning of the season,” she said. “While production was up significantly over last season, sales growth has outpaced that growth in production. SnapDragon is considered a premium, high-flavor variety and it is selling better than ever!”
RubyFrost sales were just beginning for the season by late December, so Wells said it is too early to say how sales will compare.
“The quality of both SnapDragon and RubyFrost has been great this year and movement is strong so far, which has led to a general optimism,” Wells said.
Crunch Time Apple Growers represents 60% of New York state’s apple production.
Hapco Farms of Westhampton Beach, NY, has tripled its broccoli acreage on the East Coast this year and now ships domestically grown broccoli 12 months a year.
With new acreage in Florida and North Carolina, Hapco Farms reports it is now the largest grower of broccoli on the East Coast.
The company’s goal is to grow product as close to its customers as possible. It is moving acreage from Mexico to the United States, specifically the East Coast, which allows delivery of product fresher, faster and cheaper.
Since Hapco Farms already had acreage in these areas, expanding growing operations there was the natural next step, and it now has the ability to supply U.S.-grown product on a year-round basis.
Hapco’s broccoli season in Florida runs from December through March. It transitions to North Carolina for a small window in mid-May to early June before moving to Maine for the summer. North Carolina production resumes in late October and runs until Florida picks up again in December.
Having expanded acreage also will provide opportunities to grow and ship other commodities, such as cauliflower and sweet corn.
South American grape shippers will likely be looking to increase export volumes to the U.S. because of stagnant or less demand from European and Asian markets this winter, according to an article in FreshFruitPortal.com in a recent interview with industry veteran John Pandol, director of special projects for Pandol Bros., Inc., Delano, CA.
Pandol called the situation “scary” and “…could get out of hand,” with extra volume showing up because the European market can only take so much volume.
By contrast the US has regional independent supermarket chains that can respond to increased volumes and do this to compete against the big program buyers.
The first Peruvian grapes began to arriving in the U.S. in early November in anticipation of transition from California grapes, which occur in December or January, depending on the buyer.
At the same time Far East and Latin American importers are being conservative for both economic and supply chain reasons.
Those in the winter grape business is still feeling “burned” after Peruvian fruit stacked atop the peak Chilean volume early in 2022. The inclination now is to move Peruvian grape volume early to avoid another collision with Chile.
California’s grape season wrapped up several weeks ago.
A larger than normal amount of grapes were not harvested, for a variety of reasons. It is estimates 3-4% of the potential fresh crop was diverted to wineries or other byproducts.
California’s table grape estimate for 2022 was 97 million boxes. The final fresh volume will measure in the low 90s, by Pandol’s estimation.
Another important factor that may haunt growers is some of their new tasty proprietary varieties may be negatively impacting overall sales. In red and white seedless, varietal preferences lead many perfectly good reds or whites being forced into artificially short market windows or becoming obsolete all together. In blacks and specialty grapes the expectations for demand never materialized and now there is oversupply that simply goes unharvested.
In essence, he said the table grape industry faces issues relating to varietal preference, varietal obsolescence and an oversupply of niche grapes.
