Posts Tagged “Economic Research Service”
Fresh produce price inflation will be low again in 2015 as it resists California’s drought, the USDA’s Economic Research Service has forecast.
The agency recently reported fresh fruit prices will increase just 2.5% to 3.5% this year, and fresh vegetable prices will rise 2% to 3%.
In May, the USDA said fresh fruit prices rose 1.7% compared with April, but were down 5.7% from May 2014. Fresh vegetable prices were 0.2% lower in May compared with April but up 1% compared with a year ago, according to the USDA.
For all food items, the Consumer Price Index for food was unchanged from April to May but 1.6% above year-ago levels.
In 2014, food price inflation was close to the 20-year historical average of 2.6%, despite the effect of the drought in the Southwest and California.
While the ongoing California drought could have “large and lasting effects on fruit, vegetable, dairy and egg prices,” the USDA at this time projects overall food-at-home inflation of about 1.75% to 2.7%.
If oil prices continue to fall or remain low this year, projected decreases in production and transportation costs may be passed along at the retail level, according to the USDA.
Truckers and their families along with everyone else could see retail prices for fresh fruits and vegetables rise between 3% and 5% in 2013.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service in a recent food price forecast estimates retail fresh fruit prices will rise 3% to 4% this year after rising only 1% in 2012.
Fresh vegetable retail prices will climb between 4% and 5% this year, compared with 5.1% deflation in 2012.
The USDA-ERS inflation forecast for both all food and food-at-home prices in 2013 is 2.5% to 3.5%.
“This forecast means that prices are likely to increase more than in 2012, but that overall inflation is expected to be near the historical average for both indexes,” according to a report summary.
Strongest inflation is associated with animal-based food products due to higher feed prices. For most other food products not affected by the drought, inflation for 2013 will be at or perhaps below normal levels.
The USDA notes fresh fruit prices increased 2.4% in May, and the fresh fruit retail index is up 2.1% compared with a year ago. Retail apple prices were 12.4% higher, while banana prices are 1.1% down and citrus prices up 1.2%.
Fresh vegetable prices at retail declined 2% in May, with fresh vegetable prices up 3.3% compared with a year ago. Potato prices are down 6.1%, lettuce prices are up 4.4% and tomato prices were up 11.4% compared with a year ago.
Fresh produce prices will increase 3.5% to 4.5% due to inflation this year, according to the latest USDA retail price forecast.
That compares to 2% price drop in 2012 for all fresh produce.
The Economic Research Service, a part of the USDA, report retail fresh fruit prices for 2013 are predicted to rise 3% to 4% in 2013, after 1% inflation in 2012 and 3.3% higher prices in 2011. With fresh fruit prices decreasing .5% in April, the USDA reported the fresh fruit index is up 1.4% from the same time a year ago.
The Department of Commerce in April reported the average retail price per pound of red delicious apples was $1.33 per pound, up seven cents per pound from April 2012. Retail navel orange prices were 98 cents per pound in April, up from 91 cents per pound the same time a year ago. Retail banana prices, at 60 cents per pound in April, were unchanged from a year ago.
Fresh vegetable retail prices are predicted to rise from 4% to 5% in 2013, after a 5.1% decline in retail prices in 2012 and a 5.6% gain in 2011.
The fresh vegetable index dropped 2.7% in April, but prices were still up 4.6% compared with the same time in 2012. The average retail price of tomatoes in April was $1.46 per pound, up from $1.39 per pound in April 2012.
The consumer price of all food consumed at home in 2013 is forecast to climb 2.5% to 3.5%, the same forecast range as food consumed away from home.