Posts Tagged “fruit prices”
Here’s an update on California citrus shipments, Red River Valley potatoes, plus the government’s 2016 outlook for food prices.
About 84 million boxes of California navels, 8 percent more than last year, are expected to be harvested this season. The estimate remains unchanged from the preseason harvest. This is a pleasant surprise considering all of the fruit and vegetable shipments that have been disrupted this winter ranging from the California desert to Mexico and Florida.
California citrus – grossing about $4100 to Chicago.
Red River Valley Potato Shipments
North Dakota growers, dealers, and processors held 19.5 million hundredweight (cwt.) of potatoes in storage on December 1, or 72 percent of production. Stocks one year earlier were considerably lower at 16.9 million cwt., which represented 71 percent of the total crop.
Minnesota held 12.5 million cwt., or 68 percent of production, that compares to 10 million cwt. and 61 percent in 2014. Total stocks are defined as all potatoes on hand, regardless of use, including those that will be lost through future shrinkage and dumping.
Red River Valley potatoes – grossing about $1700 to Chicago.
2016 Inflation Outlook
Fruit and vegetable retail prices should rise at a faster rate in 2016 than the previous year.
The USDA’s latest Food Price Outlook predicts retail inflation for fresh fruits for 2016 at 2.5% to 3.5%, compared to estimated deflation of -1.25 to -2.25 percent in 2015. The USDA said part of the reason for the decline in fruit prices in 2015 was linked to the supply and price of imports.
Fresh vegetable retail prices are projected to increase by 2 to 3 percent in 2016. That compares with modest projected inflation of 0.75 to 1.75 percemt for retail fresh vegetables in 2015.
Overall retail food inflation for 2016 is projected to rise in a normal range of between 2 to 3 percent, up from estimates of 2015 inflation of 1.5 to 2.5 percent, according to the USDA. Inflation for food away from home is projected in a range between 2.5 to 3.5 in 2016, up from 2.2 to 3.2 inflation projected for 2015.
Fresh produce price inflation will be low again in 2015 as it resists California’s drought, the USDA’s Economic Research Service has forecast.
The agency recently reported fresh fruit prices will increase just 2.5% to 3.5% this year, and fresh vegetable prices will rise 2% to 3%.
In May, the USDA said fresh fruit prices rose 1.7% compared with April, but were down 5.7% from May 2014. Fresh vegetable prices were 0.2% lower in May compared with April but up 1% compared with a year ago, according to the USDA.
For all food items, the Consumer Price Index for food was unchanged from April to May but 1.6% above year-ago levels.
In 2014, food price inflation was close to the 20-year historical average of 2.6%, despite the effect of the drought in the Southwest and California.
While the ongoing California drought could have “large and lasting effects on fruit, vegetable, dairy and egg prices,” the USDA at this time projects overall food-at-home inflation of about 1.75% to 2.7%.
If oil prices continue to fall or remain low this year, projected decreases in production and transportation costs may be passed along at the retail level, according to the USDA.
Truckers and their families along with everyone else could see retail prices for fresh fruits and vegetables rise between 3% and 5% in 2013.
The USDA’s Economic Research Service in a recent food price forecast estimates retail fresh fruit prices will rise 3% to 4% this year after rising only 1% in 2012.
Fresh vegetable retail prices will climb between 4% and 5% this year, compared with 5.1% deflation in 2012.
The USDA-ERS inflation forecast for both all food and food-at-home prices in 2013 is 2.5% to 3.5%.
“This forecast means that prices are likely to increase more than in 2012, but that overall inflation is expected to be near the historical average for both indexes,” according to a report summary.
Strongest inflation is associated with animal-based food products due to higher feed prices. For most other food products not affected by the drought, inflation for 2013 will be at or perhaps below normal levels.
The USDA notes fresh fruit prices increased 2.4% in May, and the fresh fruit retail index is up 2.1% compared with a year ago. Retail apple prices were 12.4% higher, while banana prices are 1.1% down and citrus prices up 1.2%.
Fresh vegetable prices at retail declined 2% in May, with fresh vegetable prices up 3.3% compared with a year ago. Potato prices are down 6.1%, lettuce prices are up 4.4% and tomato prices were up 11.4% compared with a year ago.