Driven by efforts to catch up on North-South routes, reefer container rates have risen sharply through 2021, but in contrast to dry cargo rates, are forecast to rise further in 2022. Conclusions are found in Drewry’s recently published Reefer Shipping Annual Review and Forecast 2021/22 report.
Drewry’s Global Reefer Container Freight Rate Index, a weighted average of rates across the top 15 reefer intensive deep-sea trade routes, rose 32% over the year to 2Q21 and by the end of 3Q21 these gains are expected to reach as much as 50%.
But these advances are dwarfed by the recent surge in dry container freight rates which have seen average container carrier unit revenues more than double over the same period.
The resurgence in reefer freight rates has not been uniform across all trades. Pricing recovery has been particularly strong on the main East-West routes, where vessel capacity conditions have been noticeably tight. But North-South trades have generally seen less price inflation, particularly on export routes from WCSA, Central America and Southern Africa.
“In contrast to dry container freight rates which are expected to decline in 2022 as trade conditions normalise, reefer container freight rates are forecast to continue rising as price inflation feeds into North-South routes when long term contract rates are renewed,” said Drewry’s head of reefer shipping research Philip Gray. “Most reefer cargo on these trades moves on long term contracts.”
The key driver of reefer freight rate inflation has been capacity related, as perishables shippers have competed with higher paying dry freight BCOs for scarce containership slots, despite ample reefer plug capacity provision. Meanwhile, continued disruption across container supply chains has led to acute shortages of reefer container equipment, already challenged by the particularly imbalanced nature of reefer trades.
“We believe that these conditions are short term and will self-correct as trade normalises from mid-2022,” added Gray. “However, we expect reefer container equipment availability to remain an issue for certain trades during their peak seasons, as the global fleet is not expected to keep pace with rising cargo demand, despite record output of newbuild containers.”
These conditions have provided short term reprieve to specialized reefer vessels, as some BCOs have returned to the mode seeking relief from congested container supply chains. But despite these developments Drewry estimates that the specialized reefer vessel’s share of the perishables trade fell to 12% in 2020 and is expected to decline further into single figures over the next few years.
Hence, despite a 0.4% decline in global seaborne perishables trade in 2020 to 132 million tons, containership reefer liftings advanced 0.3% to 5.4 million tons. Further modal share gains and buoyant cargo demand will see containerized reefer traffic expand at a faster pace than dry cargo trade from 2022.
The contraction in overall seaborne perishables trade in 2020 was much milder than for dry cargo, demonstrating the stronger resilience of reefer trades to economic shock. The trade was particularly impacted by a shuttered hospitality sector which reduced demand for deciduous fruit, fresh vegetables and frozen potatoes, while Covid-19 containment measures cut crop production and fish catches.
Meanwhile, an outbreak of fusarium TR4 disease in the Philippines weakened growth in banana trades. But cargo demand was supported by a booming pork trade, owing to African Swine Fever driven imports into China.
Seaborne reefer traffic picked up through the first half of 2021, expanding 4.8% over the previous year, led by meat, citrus and exotics trades but is not expected to expand at the same pace as dry cargo through the remainder of the year as it is not recovering from as deep a contraction in 2020.
Mexican blueberry shipments are expected to slowdown following a five-year growth, which exceeded 50,000 tons in 2020. However, the 2.6 percent projected growth over last season represents a slowdown, the Mexican Ministry of Agriculture told Opportimes.
International sales reached $399 million in 2020 with 95.9 percent of the exported volume going to the U.S., but exports went to 34 other nations.
The U.S. is the world’s largest blueberry importer, with import purchases worth $1.4 billion in 2020.
Blueberry shipments went from 15,000 to 29,000 tons from 2015 to 2016, to 37,000 tons in 2017, 40,000 tons in 2018, 49,000 tons in 2019, and 50,293 in 2020. During the last decade, blueberry volume has averaged an annual growth rate of 25.1 percent.
In 2020, 11,614 acres were allocated to blueberry production. The state of Jalisco generated 31.5 percent of the national production value with 23,169 tons.
California mandarin shipments expected to be far less than the previous season, with the 2021-22 volumes expected to be off by 45 percent compared to a year ago.
California Citrus Mutal also predicts total Navel orange loadings for the 2021-22 season will be down 20% from the previous season’s final numbers.
According to the California Department of Food and Agriculture’s 2021-22 California Navel Orange Objective Measurement Report, released on Sept. 10, 2021, the initial forecast for the navel orange crop was 70.0 million cartons, down 14% from the previous year’s total utilized production. Additionally, an estimated 4% of last season’s crop was not utilized, meaning it was not picked or sold.
Now several weeks into 2021-22 season, the CCM anticipates, based on current picking estimates, will be 20% below the prior season’s total utilized production and approximately 24% below the total crop size.
The drop in production is attributed to the previous season’s heavy crop and extended season. Due to the larger sized crop and other market conditions, fruit remained on the tree far longer than is typical, which negatively affected the current year’s crop size.
The CCM also estimates 2021-22 California mandarin shipments will be down 45% from the previous season’s exceptionally large crop.
The current navel and mandarin crops are forecast to go through May and June, respectively.
The 2021-22 season is shaping up to be far different than the previous season. Shippers extended last year’s season well into August.
Adolescence is a critical period for the evolution of cardiometabolic risk factors that are largely influenced by diet and lifestyle. Understanding these risk factors is essential to developing effective dietary guidance for disease prevention targeting this critical age period. Recently published research in the British Journal of Nutrition found that 9-17 year-old girls who consumed up to one cup of potatoes daily had no increased risk of becoming overweight or developing high blood pressure, dyslipidemia, or impaired fasting glucose by the end of the study in late adolescence.
According to the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans, girls aged 9 – 18 are encouraged to consume 1½ to 3-cup equivalents per day of vegetables, depending on their calorie needs, but most fail to meet these guidelines. In this study, the highest levels of potato consumption ranged from 1/5 to 1 cup per day and at that level, no adverse effects were observed.
“Our results show that nutrient-rich potatoes can be part of a healthy diet in young girls during this important period of growth and development,” says Lynn L. Moore, DSc, MPH, Boston University, the study’s senior author. “There is growing evidence that overall diet quality is what really matters in the preservation of heart health. Potatoes are an affordable food, with a number of valuable nutrients, and our research suggests that moderate intakes of potatoes, along with many other types of vegetables, can be a regular part of a healthy diet pattern.”
Higher intakes of all forms of potatoes (including fried) during the ‘tween’ years of nine to 11 were associated with higher intakes of potassium and dietary fiber, two nutrients of public health concern,[i] as well as vitamin C, vitamin B6 and magnesium. Black girls in this study with the highest intakes of potatoes also consumed more fruit and non-starchy vegetables and had higher diet-quality scores.
Study Design, Strengths and Limitations
The researchers analyzed data from nearly 2,000 subjects (approximately 50% Black, 50% White) from the National Growth and Health Study, a longitudinal study of the development of obesity and other cardiovascular-related outcomes in adolescent girls.
For girls at 9-11 years of age, researchers analyzed data on total potato intake (white and sweet) as well as separate intakes of fried and non-fried potatoes.
For girls at 9-17 years of age, researchers analyzed data for total potato intake (white and sweet).
Diet was assessed using 3-day diet records at baseline when girls were 9-10 years old, and during the follow-up years 2-5, 7, 8, and 10. The intake of potatoes (both white and sweet potatoes) was extracted from total vegetable servings. Anthropometric measures of body fat and body composition and blood pressure were measured annually. Additionally, fasting triglycerides, other lipids, and glucose were measured in later adolescence (at 18-20 years of age)
Repeated measures of a number of potential confounding variables were examined, including socioeconomic status, body mass index (BMI), changes in height, physical activity, television viewing, intakes of food groups and nutrients, as well as diet quality measured by the Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2015. The study’s strengths include its prospective design as well as the use of multiple sets of three-day diet records, which is considered the gold standard method for dietary assessment. Researchers also took repeated measures of cardiometabolic risk factors and most potential confounders.
The investigators acknowledge limitations to the study, such as reliance on self-reported dietary intakes from adolescents who may have had difficulty accurately estimating portion sizes and reporting details. However, parents and other caregivers were actively involved in the completion of these diet records, especially during the earlier years of the study. Researchers were unable to assess the effects of very high levels of potato intakes since few girls reported consuming more than one cup equivalent of potatoes per day. They were also unable to analyze any differences between white and sweet potato consumption, given the low intakes of sweet potatoes within the study population. Finally, the researchers were unable to control for baseline values of fasting glucose or triglycerides due to missing or unreliable data at the initial exam.
This study was selected as the Nutrition Society’s Paper of the Month. Every month, the Editors-in-Chief of the Nutrition Society’s journals select one paper as being of particular interest or originality, and/or because it challenges previously conceived notions in nutritional science and public health. The research manuscript, “Potato consumption is not associated with elevated cardiometabolic risk in adolescent girls,” is published in the British Journal of Nutrition (https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007114521003445). Authors include Ioanna Yiannakou, Mengjie Yuan, R. Taylor Pickering, Martha R. Singer, and Lynn L. Moore, Boston University. In addition to funding from the National Institutes of Health, funding was provided by the Alliance for Potato Research and Education (APRE); APRE had no input on interpretation of the results or manuscript development.
During my 47 years involvement with the trucking and produce industries, it has been my privilege to work with men and women, who are dedicated, hard-working and mostly good, down-to-earth honest folks. Without either industry it would be impossible to bring the finest fruits and vegetable to a hungry nation every single day. This is why I’ve been so proud to be part of these dynamic Industries.
And nothing is more important to the supply chain than trucks and truckers. Without you our great country would come to a halt.
I launched my career in September 1974 and was soon heavily involved in the most drastic change of the trucking industry, its deregulation. From this point on it has been a dynamic and exciting ride; one which I have never regretted.
haulproduce.com was formally launched in January 2012 and I “retired” nearly three years later. Over the past decade I’ve posted over 3,150 news and feature stories. Hopefully a few of the things I’ve learned over the past half century are beneficial.
May this special time of the year bring you peace, good health, and happiness. And may 2022 bring us hope, resilience and a belief the human race will become better.
I sincerely thank you for your loyalty and kindness.
Florida citrus growers see good volume shipments this season, despite a USDA forecast for a smaller production of all oranges and grapefruits.
Florida Classic Growers of Dundee, FL report excellent fruit color, especially Florida navels.
Noble Worldwide of Winter Haven, FL started harvesting the second week of September and expects to harvest through May and ship through June or July.
DLF International of Fort Pierce, FL notes they began picking at the end of September and will run through the first part of July using a cold storage program at the end of the season.
DLF has similar volume to last season, but overall fruit quality has improved.
Seald Sweet of Vero Beach, FL, has volume matching last year because of the good growing conditions and weather. Florida citrus movement is expected to be strong in part because Texas grapefruit volume is limited due to a freeze last February.
Continued efforts to manage citrus greening is another factor leading to increased quality crop, Parris said.
DFL reports while East Coast demand is about the same as last year, and there has been an increase in business in the Midwest. DFL also is also expanding its orange and grapefruit businesses.
According to the USDA, overall U.S. citrus production for the fresh market is estimated at 3.45 million tons in 2020-21, down 6% from the previous season, with smaller fresh-market crops of oranges (down 11%), grapefruit (down 15%) and lemons (down 6%).
The USDA’s October forecast for Florida’s production of all oranges was down 11% from last season with grapefruit production down 7% and all tangerine and tangelo production up 1%.
The United States receives fresh vegetables from more than 125 different countries, but most imports originate from Mexico and Canada.
In 2020, Mexico accounted for 77 percent of U.S. fresh vegetable import volume, and Canada represented 11 percent. An analysis of domestic census and trade data shows Mexican and Canadian producers have dominated the U.S. import market by offering protected culture—or greenhouse—imports as well as organic options, which increased choices for consumers.
While conventional and field-grown fresh vegetables still account for most imports, organic and greenhouse vegetables are expanding market reach.
U.S. consumers have pushed for greater consistency in supermarket produce and expanded demand for year-round availability of virtually all fresh vegetables. Between 1998 and 2020, the volume of fresh vegetable imports increased nearly 200 percent, and the value of fresh vegetable imports grew to exceed fresh exports by $7.6 billion, more than double the same figure a decade earlier.
Market Window Creep in Fresh Vegetable Imports
Market window creep is an extension of seasonal demand and refers to the increasing volume of fresh vegetable imports entering during the start or end of the traditional domestic production seasons.
Over time, the categorization of vegetables into summer and winter categories has dwindled as near year-round imports of both categories of produce proliferated. Many traditional domestic market windows have eroded as importers have found their own market windows expanding, according to trade data.
From 2008 to 2020, imports entered the market earlier than usual (entering the traditional domestic market window), and shipping seasons were extended into the following season.
January typically is when produce shipments from West Mexico build in volume and continue for the next three to four months. A majority of it crosses the border at Nogales, AZ.
Calavo Growers Inc. of Nogales expects to have the same acreage in Mexico this winter, but has shifted emphasis with commodities grown. It is increasing roma tomato volume, while and decreasing round tomatoes.
There will be a 15% increase on romas and a 15% decrease on round tomatoes.
The roma harvest got underway the third week of December, and round tomatoes will start in limited volume this week.
Significant volume of romas should be available by mid-January.
Volume of round tomatoes likely will be lighter than normal until mid-February.
Calavo also will have a winter grape tomato shipments out of Culiacan for the first time. The harvest starts in early January and loadings continue until April.
Crown Jewels Produce of launched its green bean program the first week of November and hopes to make the program year-round by adding product out of Baja California and Texas. The company also now ships cucumbers year-round, sourcing from Nogales, Baja California and Texas.
Crown Jewels was receiving Mexican green, yellow and gray squash, bell peppers and eggplant in November received its first colored hothouse bell peppers the first half of December.
Overall, the firm’s volume should be 20% to 30% higher than last year.
Divine Flavor of Nogales has transitioned its organic program from Baja California to West Mexico. The company is shipping cucumbers, grape tomatoes, watermelons and table grapes.
Earth Blend LLC of Nogales is shipping European cucumbers, Persian cucumbers, eggplant, squash, bell peppers and cherry tomatoes. The company has also added organic Italian squash and yellow squash.
Fresh Farms of Rio Rico, AZ already is looking forward to its spring table grape season out of Mexico, with volume growing each season. Mexican grape shipments usually get underway as the last of the Chilean import grapes finish.
Table grapes are described as backbone of its company. The grapes start in Jalisco in late March with several new varieties and an abundance of fresh grapes including Cotton Candy. Fresh Farms also will offer some organic squash.
MAS Melons & Grapes LLC of Rio Rico has honeydew melons, seedless watermelons, mini watermelons, cantaloupes and orange candy melons this season. The program will continued until late December out of northern Mexico and then switched to fields in the south for the winter and spring months.
The company had butternut, kabocha, spaghetti and zucchini squash until mid-December.
Grower Alliance LLC of Nogales, Ariz.-based has launched a logistics company and added a produce brokerage.
The move was made to get loads out the same day the produce was picked, resulting in a fresher product.
The new entity, which came about as a result of a merger with Lugo’s Trucking, formerly of Tucson, AZ., will have access to eight trucks, three of which will be dedicated exclusively to Grower Alliance. Eventually the fleet will expand.
For now, the new company will cover primarily a route from Nogales to the greater Los Angeles area, but eventually the service area will expand nationwide and into Canada.
Grower Alliance also has launched a produce brokerage called Grow-All Procurement. The brokerage will be able to offer items like citrus that Grower Alliance does not handle.
IPR Fresh of Rio Rico now has expanded its slicer cucumber program, which was offer intermittently in the past. Slicers began shipping in mid-November and will continue through April.
IPR Fresh also has increased volume of sweet corn through the end of March, and will continue to have its year-round supply of organic and conventional colored bell peppers as well as a green bell peppers.
IPR Fresh also will have more watermelon this winter, which will run through April, and has organic and conventional yellow and zucchini squash.
Produce House of Nogales expected to have similar volume this season out of Mexico.
New items include mini watermelons, seedless watermelons and honeydews.
The company also is entering into the southern state of Sinaloa to source tomatoes, roma tomatoes and bell peppers this season.
Tricar Sales Inc. of Rio Rico will have its same West Mexico program as last year, which will include cucumbers, European cucumbers, roma tomatoes, round tomatoes, eggplant and green, red, yellow and orange bell peppers.
A big rebound Chilean grape shipments in 2021-22 is forecast in a new estimate from the USDA’s Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service.
Chilean grape Volume will rebound from the decline caused in the 2020-21 season from heavy rain.
At 805,000 metric tons, the USDA’s estimate of Chilean grape production for 2021-22 is up 22% from the 2020-21 season. Chilean grape exports also will increase 22.9% to 645,000 metric tons in the 2021-22 season.
The Oppenheimer Group (Oppy) reports excellent growing conditions in Chile so far this season, and expects to have good volume from January through May. Oppy is shipping Chilean pears, grapes, kiwifruit, citrus, pluots, plums, peaches, nectarines, cherries, berries, avocados, apricots and apples.
Oppy ship grapes 12-months a year and sources product from Chile and Brazil, as well as South Africa, Mexico and California.
The rebound in Chilean grape production is associated in part with increased production from new varieties planted in recent years and a return to more normalized climatic conditions, according to the USDA report.
During the 2020-21 season rainfall during the last week of January 2021 damaged the table grape crop that was ready for harvest in the central region of the country, specifically in the regions of Valparaíso, Metropolitana, and O’Higgins.
That rainfall pulled down Chilean grape production by 15.3%, according to the report, reaching 664,700 metric tons.
For the upcoming 2021-22 season, the USDA table grape exports will total 645,000 metric tons, a 22.8% increase over last season. The U.S. remains the main market for Chilean table grape exports, accounting for 48.5% of Chilean table grape exports.
In 2020-21, Chilean table grape exports to the U.S. totaled 254,811 metric tons, a 7.5% decrease compared with marketing year 2019-20.
Oppy notes one advantage the industry has is that the Chilean bulk grapes are shipped in break bulk vessels. These vessels are unloaded at different terminals from container shipments, and helps volume bypass the current bottleneck.
China is the second market for Chilean grapes, totaling 78,117 metric tons in 2020-21, a 30.1% decline over marketing year 2019-20.
