U.S. citrus growers will struggle to grow output in the next 10 years, the USDA predicts in its annual outlook report.
In fact, the USDA predicts U.S. citrus output will decline from 11.2 billion pounds in 2022 to 9.8 billion pounds in 2032. That loss in citrus production will be offset by gains in noncitrus fruit and tree nut output, the report said.
Citrus production will decline “largely due to further attrition of bearing acreage in Florida’s orange and grapefruit industries.” Citrus production in California — the top producing state of fresh market oranges, lemons and tangerines — is projected to remain steady.
Total value of citrus production in the U.S. is projected to remain steady because of higher prices due to smaller domestic supply, the report said.
The USDA report said total combined farm value of fruit, tree nuts, vegetable and pulse crop (dry beans, dry peas, lentils and chickpeas) production is projected to reach $59 billion by calendar year 2032, up from $49 billion in 2021.
Over the next 10 years, vegetable and pulse crop production is expected to grow more slowly than in the previous decade, rising by 4% between 2023 and 2032.
“This primarily reflects technical measurement challenges associated with documenting the growth of protected culture [crops], which displaces field-grown area, and to rising import competition,” the report said. “Imports are expected to continue to rise as U.S. consumers demand a more diverse, competitively priced, year-round vegetable supply.”
The USDA said its challenges with documenting the growth of protected culture largely center on the rapid growth of the protected culture subsector (mostly greenhouses and urban vertical farms) that is slowly replacing field-grown production for several major fresh vegetables.
“With some exceptions, this [protected culture] sector is still not well represented in traditional USDA data collection programs that have recorded declining field-grown area and production for some crops,” the USDA said.
In recent years, there has been a rapid rise of import volume across many fresh and processed vegetables, including imports of organic foods produced in the Southern Hemisphere, the USDA said. USDA projections assume imports will continue to rise.
Despite expanding production of higher-priced vegetables such as broccoli and organic vegetables, the value of fresh-market vegetable production, excluding melons, is projected to increase by less than 1% between 2021-23 and 2030-32 as price pressure continues from strong import growth, the report said.
In terms of production, the report said key fresh-market vegetables over the next 10 years include lettuce, onions, carrots and sweet potatoes.
“Within the lettuce subsector, growth is projected in romaine while field-grown leaf production and iceberg output decline,” the USDA said. Field-grown leaf lettuce share is expected to be limited by rising protected culture output, the report said.
Projected U.S. potato production will grow 9% as value rises 10% over the 2022-32 baseline period, the USDA said.
“While planted acres are forecast to increase in 2023, total planted acres in the top 13 potato producing states are forecast to remain flat through the remainder of the baseline period,” the USDA said.
Commercial domestic mushroom production is forecast to decline slightly in the early part of the projection period, followed by steady production.
Mushroom farm value is projected to reach about $1.2 billion by 2032, a 15% increase over the 10-year period, the USDA said.
Similar to many areas of the country cooler weather has slowed production of Florida spring vegetables, but growers and shippers remain optimistic it will be a good shipping season as we head toward April and peak loadings.
While spring produce items got off to a slower start than usual, grower/shippers see volume increasing rapidly, with excellent quickly.
West Coast Tomato LLC of Palmetto, FL has round and roma tomatoes in the Manatee County area of central Florida.
New Limeco of Homestead, FL is shipping Florida carambola — or star fruit — which will continue until May. The company also ships dragon fruit, passion fruit, Florida mangoes, Florida red guava and Thai guava for other growers and carries limes imported from Mexico, Colombia or Honduras year-round.
Pioneer Growers Co-op of Belle Glade, FL, has spring corn as well as cabbage, radishes, beans and leaf items.
Branch: A Family of Farms in South Bay, FL sweet corn and green beans this spring. The company was harvesting corn in Homestead in February and started sourcing from Belle Glade again after mid-March. It expects to be back to normal spring volume by mid-April. Corn shipments should continue until Memorial Day.
The company’s big push on cabbage was for St. Patrick’s Day, but supplies will continue until mid-April.
Radishes will last through spring, and the company should have green beans through early May along with leaf items like escarole, red and green leaf lettuce, romaine, cilantro and parsley.
Dundee Citrus Growers Association, Dundee, FL, is shipping valencia oranges through May, peaches from late March through early May and blueberries from mid-March through early May.
Peru expects to export up to 270,000 tons of citrus fruits (oranges, mandarins, limes, lemons, and grapefruit) during 2023, according to a report by the Peruvian Citrus Growers’ Association (ProCitrus),
Despite a late start on season harvest, this is a 4% volume increase compared to 2022 which had 259,000 tons exported.
ProCitrus reports early varieties are a bit behind and the first peak of the season is expected to arrive at the end of April and May.
Exports will continue until August, led by a sharp drop in the first flower, which means the season will be marked by the volumes of the second and third flowers.
Last season, exports were challenged by high transport costs and the war in Ukraine. Many citrus producers were forced to switch to other fruits, which has reduced crops, especially mandarins and oranges, by an average of 8%.
A recent detailed 18-page National Berry Report by the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service details volumes of berries placed in the market since Jan. 1, 2023. It offers information on strawberries, blueberries, blackberries and raspberries from the U.S., Canada, and Latin America.
Peruvian Blueberries
Peru produces about 68 percent of the blueberries in the market so far this year.
The market has received a total of 112.3 million flats of blueberries, up from 101.2 million a year ago so far this year. Peru has shipped 76.1 million flats of blueberries in 2023. For the same dates in 2022, Peru provided 60.3 million flats.
Running a distant second this year is Chilean blueberry volume, which still accounts for a strong 17.2 million flats. This is up from 14.5 million a year ago.
Mexico’s volume to the market is slightly down this year, to 11.4 million blueberry flats, about a million below the 2022 figure.
The state of Georgia dropped way off this winter, from 11.5 million flats early in 2022 to 6.7 million thus far in 2023. Also, Argentina’s blueberry volume to the U.S. this year is significantly down by 1.2 million, to less than 700,000 flats so far in 2023.
Colombia and Uruguay are both slightly down as blueberry sources, collectively accounting for less than 200,000 flats.
Mexican Strawberries
Since the first of the year, strawberry volume from Mexico, totaling 26.7 million flats, almost equals the combined total from California and Florida.
California has shipped 13.7 million flats so far in 2023. Oxnard provided 13.5 million of those total California flats. With Florida providing 14.1 million, the two states in 2023 have combined to ship 27.3 million flats of strawberries.
Florida’s 2023 volume is down year-on-year, from 16.0 million year-on-year. California’s strawberry volume has dropped from 16.7 million a year ago.
Mexico’s volume is up three million flats to date over 2022. A year ago, Mexico’s total strawberry exports to the U.S. totaled 23.6 million flats.
Pharr, TX, is significantly increasing its lead as the strongest Mexican strawberry crossing point. To date in 2023, Pharr’s strawberry volume is 17.6 million flats, up from 14.3 million a year ago. Laredo, TX, rose to 6.0 million flats, up from 4.2 million flats of strawberries in the first six weeks of 2022. The other significant crossing point for Mexican strawberries this year is Otay Mesa (San Diego, CA) which is down two million flats to 3.0 million.
Raspberries and Blackberries
USDA figures show very consistent volumes for both raspberries and blackberries entering the market this year, compared to the same period in 2022. The 2023 blackberry volume is 27.9 million flats, versus 27.3 million in 2022. Raspberry volume for 2023 is 29.9 million flats, up slightly from 28.5 million a year ago.
Mexico is the overwhelming raspberry source, providing all but 300,000 flats for the U.S. market so far. California’s raspberry volume plummeted from a half-million flats in early 2022 to a quarter-million so far this year. So far this year, Canada and Guatemala combine for 38,000 flats of raspberries.
Mexico has supplied about 62 percent of the blackberries for the U.S. market so far this year. Mexico’s blackberry volume this year is up around 1.5 million flats to 17.3 million. All other sources of blackberries account for 10.2 million flats, with California shipping 9.3 million flats into the early 2023 market.
Georgia’s blackberry volume is down about 300,000 flats to 784,238 total in 2023.
Guatemala has shipped about a half-million flats of blackberries in the early weeks of each of the last two years.
A leading export item for Mexico are strawberries which increased 9% in 2022, making it one of the most exported berries in the country. From 2017 to 2021, Mexico produced, on average, 655,000 tons of strawberries.
The primary producing regions in the country are Michoacán, Guanajuato, Baja California, Mexico and Baja California Sur with approximately 98% of all production volume.
Founded in 2012, Naturberry is one of the leading companies in the Mexican strawberry industry. It is a subsidiary of the North American company Naturipe Berry Growers, part of the Naturipe Farms group.
In 10 years the operation grew from two workers to 18 workers, and from producing only 150,000 boxes to 3 million 4kg boxes of strawberries during the last season.
Naturberry also imports strawberries from California to Mexico during the winter months, between June and September.
The company imports around 500,000 boxes of strawberries during that time of the year.
Of the 3 million boxes that Naturberry is exporting to the U.S., between 200 and 250 thousand contain organic strawberries.
The main markets are the United States and Canada, and their production in California complements Mexico’s off-season.
98 percent of the company’s exports go to the United States,
Mexico exported just over one million tons of avocado to the U.S. in 2020. With this, the combined annual commercial value totaled $3.1 billion dollars, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
The federal agency reports the success of exported Mexican avocados has been based on its quality, safety measures and a larger area devoted to cultivation, with a total 248,456 hectares.
Along with this extensive growing area, the country’s sustainable practices and an efficient and effective use of water resources have allowed the industry to secure surplus volumes in order to set annual records in the international market.
Of total exports, 95% corresponded to fresh whole avocados, 4% to guacamole and 2% to pulp.
Data from the USDA shows from January to November last year, 82% of the total fresh avocado imported came from Mexico, with a value of $2.7 billion dollars.
According to data from the Servicio de Información Agroalimentaria y Pesquera (SIAP), in 2022 the sale of guacamole showed a year-on-year increase of 8%, going from 35,809 tons to 38,723 tons, while avocado pulp was marketed in quantities averaging 338 tons per week.
The origin of the fruit was exclusively from Michoacan fields certified by Mexican and U.S. health authorities.
However, in the second half of 2022, the USDA approved imports from Jalisco, expanding the scope of the Mexican industry in the U.S.
In the case of guacamole, which is a sauce that combines avocado pulp, garlic, onion, chile, tomato, lime juice and salt, 2,975 tons were destined for the U.S. market in the three weeks prior to the Super Bowl, while in the same period last year, pulp exports averaged 371 tons per week.
Between April and August, Mexican mango exports are at a peak, although the season starts in January and runs until September.
Emex Mexico, a leading association of Mexican mango exporters expects a 5% to 8% increase in volume for the current season compared to 2022.
New Exporters
At the end of last year, Colombia announced its first shipment of mangos to the U.S. market. Even though their volumes are low, they expect to increase exports in the seasons to come.
Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru are the main South American exporters of mango to the U.S. and they recorded a 24% increase in export volumes last year.
Colombia is currently exporting two varieties of mangoes, the sugar mango which is a small fruit marketed as “pocket-sized” which can be eaten with their skin, making it the ideal treat for kids or anytime snacking. This variety just recently entered the U.S. market.
The second variety, which made its U.S. debut in December 2022, is the fresh mango, with producers expecting to export 1,000 tons of the variety this year, hoping to become a strong supplier to one of the top consumer countries for this fruit.
Although there has been a slow start to the Culiacan production, volume is starting to kick in this month. Eggplant, cucumbers, colored bells and other vegetables will run strong before the traditional fade as the heat rolls in late April and May.
Sonoran vegetable production is underway in Guaymas for SunFed of Rio Rico, AZ but starting to wind down. The transition started a couple of weeks ago and SunFed fields to the north are going strong.
Quality of the product is reported good. The cold slowed growth up – particularly for the colored bells and eggplant – so harvest started a little later. Squash volume is good but even better with other vegetable and melon.
The production outlook for West Mexico is good. While unlikely, the greatest threat to production could be late-winter cold in Sonora.
Culiacan farms in mid-February, had temperatures colder than normal. Abnormally cool weather has slowed some of the production out of the Sinaloa area. Also impacting the Mexican vegetable season this winter has been excessive rain particularly to the north in the state of Sonora.
Despite the wet and cooler weather in Mexico, this year’s production and market prices have been much better than 2022. A year ago, growers had significant labor problems that impacted production while farms were also battling dramatic year over year cost increases in 2022. This all made for a very difficult first quarter last year. The outlook for the first and second quarters of 2023 looks better than 2022.
Depending on ripeness, bananas range in color from shades of almost hunter green flecked with whispers of yellow, all the way to deep canary yellow speckled with pinpricks of brown. Where a banana falls on this green-to-yellow range holds the key to where this banana will travel next on its circuitous journey from farm to produce aisle.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture publishes a numbered color index that conveys quick-glance standardization to help produce buyers make decisions. Depending on whether the case of bananas in question looks like a No. 2 or a No. 5 will determine the exact amount of time the bananas will spend in a ripening room, benefiting from specific temperature controls and piped-in ethylene gas that helps ripening progress smoothly.
After close monitoring in the ripening room confirms that the fruit is the perfect golden yellow color, the fruit is transported to the store. At the store, the bananas are tucked into merchandising displays. Only now can the produce team sit back and wait to discover if the bananas pass the final, most difficult desirability test: Will the ripe fruit catch a shopper’s eye?
Significant weather factors played havoc with the transition of Salinas Valley vegetables to the deserts of California and Arizona several months ago. It is now time for that transition from the south to Salinas and weather conditions up north are going to result in a rocky return.
Shipping gaps and disruptions are already occurring and will continue until at least early on many vegetable items. The problems started when rains prevented plantings from occurring on time. This will adversely affect the size, weight and condition of the product at harvesting.
Caution is urged when loading Salinas vegetable and make sure your receiver knows what quality, size, etc. of product they will be receiving.
There will be delayed shipments of broccoli and cauliflower in the Salinas Valley because of the excessive cold temperatures in February.
Florida vegetables will be an attractive alternative to Salinas for receivers until Florida starts winding down in April and May.
Celery volume will be limited this spring.
Oxnard received a lot of rain, delaying plantings during the early part of the farming season. However, there are Huron loadings of Iceberg lettuce, which will assist more consistent production of Iceberg through the transition period from the desert to the Salinas Valley. There are very few shipping from Huron this spring. Many will not be making the transition from the desert to Salinas or Santa Maria without shipping gaps.
